Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › AIG is back to $48/share?!?!
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socrattt.
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August 28, 2009 at 8:14 AM #449967August 28, 2009 at 9:29 AM #450039
davelj
Participant[quote=jpinpb]I just don’t understand who is buying this BS. Like the other day, durable goods are up. Whoo-hoo. Duh. The government paid you to buy cars. Now what. Anyone that wanted to buy or was thinking about it did. So who’s going to be buying cars now that the program is over?
I mean, it is amazing how fake everything is. I don’t get it.[/quote]
I’m not a trader, but this rally doesn’t feel sustainable. Why? Because the micro-cap banks aren’t really moving up much. The big-caps and mid-caps are screaming – that is, the liquid stuff you can trade – but the small-caps are stuck in the mud. Until I see signs that folks are willing to INVEST in and OWN banks – as opposed to merely trade them – then the rally is highly suspect. The S&P is now trading at a level that discounts significant economic growth over the next few years. Ain’t gonna happen. Mathematically impossible given the debt load. I don’t think we’re going to break the previous lows, but I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t see the S&P back down around 750 or so at some point before the end of next year. This definitely feels like irrational exuberance lite.
August 28, 2009 at 9:29 AM #450566Participant[quote=jpinpb]I just don’t understand who is buying this BS. Like the other day, durable goods are up. Whoo-hoo. Duh. The government paid you to buy cars. Now what. Anyone that wanted to buy or was thinking about it did. So who’s going to be buying cars now that the program is over?
I mean, it is amazing how fake everything is. I don’t get it.[/quote]
I’m not a trader, but this rally doesn’t feel sustainable. Why? Because the micro-cap banks aren’t really moving up much. The big-caps and mid-caps are screaming – that is, the liquid stuff you can trade – but the small-caps are stuck in the mud. Until I see signs that folks are willing to INVEST in and OWN banks – as opposed to merely trade them – then the rally is highly suspect. The S&P is now trading at a level that discounts significant economic growth over the next few years. Ain’t gonna happen. Mathematically impossible given the debt load. I don’t think we’re going to break the previous lows, but I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t see the S&P back down around 750 or so at some point before the end of next year. This definitely feels like irrational exuberance lite.
August 28, 2009 at 9:29 AM #450639Participant[quote=jpinpb]I just don’t understand who is buying this BS. Like the other day, durable goods are up. Whoo-hoo. Duh. The government paid you to buy cars. Now what. Anyone that wanted to buy or was thinking about it did. So who’s going to be buying cars now that the program is over?
I mean, it is amazing how fake everything is. I don’t get it.[/quote]
I’m not a trader, but this rally doesn’t feel sustainable. Why? Because the micro-cap banks aren’t really moving up much. The big-caps and mid-caps are screaming – that is, the liquid stuff you can trade – but the small-caps are stuck in the mud. Until I see signs that folks are willing to INVEST in and OWN banks – as opposed to merely trade them – then the rally is highly suspect. The S&P is now trading at a level that discounts significant economic growth over the next few years. Ain’t gonna happen. Mathematically impossible given the debt load. I don’t think we’re going to break the previous lows, but I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t see the S&P back down around 750 or so at some point before the end of next year. This definitely feels like irrational exuberance lite.
August 28, 2009 at 9:29 AM #450827Participant[quote=jpinpb]I just don’t understand who is buying this BS. Like the other day, durable goods are up. Whoo-hoo. Duh. The government paid you to buy cars. Now what. Anyone that wanted to buy or was thinking about it did. So who’s going to be buying cars now that the program is over?
I mean, it is amazing how fake everything is. I don’t get it.[/quote]
I’m not a trader, but this rally doesn’t feel sustainable. Why? Because the micro-cap banks aren’t really moving up much. The big-caps and mid-caps are screaming – that is, the liquid stuff you can trade – but the small-caps are stuck in the mud. Until I see signs that folks are willing to INVEST in and OWN banks – as opposed to merely trade them – then the rally is highly suspect. The S&P is now trading at a level that discounts significant economic growth over the next few years. Ain’t gonna happen. Mathematically impossible given the debt load. I don’t think we’re going to break the previous lows, but I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t see the S&P back down around 750 or so at some point before the end of next year. This definitely feels like irrational exuberance lite.
August 28, 2009 at 9:29 AM #450230Participant[quote=jpinpb]I just don’t understand who is buying this BS. Like the other day, durable goods are up. Whoo-hoo. Duh. The government paid you to buy cars. Now what. Anyone that wanted to buy or was thinking about it did. So who’s going to be buying cars now that the program is over?
I mean, it is amazing how fake everything is. I don’t get it.[/quote]
I’m not a trader, but this rally doesn’t feel sustainable. Why? Because the micro-cap banks aren’t really moving up much. The big-caps and mid-caps are screaming – that is, the liquid stuff you can trade – but the small-caps are stuck in the mud. Until I see signs that folks are willing to INVEST in and OWN banks – as opposed to merely trade them – then the rally is highly suspect. The S&P is now trading at a level that discounts significant economic growth over the next few years. Ain’t gonna happen. Mathematically impossible given the debt load. I don’t think we’re going to break the previous lows, but I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t see the S&P back down around 750 or so at some point before the end of next year. This definitely feels like irrational exuberance lite.
August 28, 2009 at 10:08 AM #450255werewolf34
ParticipantCan anybody point at stronger fundamental economic data that supports higher stocks?
If not, then the rise in stocks is speculation that the economy recovers in the future (how long in the future?)
August 28, 2009 at 10:08 AM #450591ParticipantCan anybody point at stronger fundamental economic data that supports higher stocks?
If not, then the rise in stocks is speculation that the economy recovers in the future (how long in the future?)
August 28, 2009 at 10:08 AM #450064ParticipantCan anybody point at stronger fundamental economic data that supports higher stocks?
If not, then the rise in stocks is speculation that the economy recovers in the future (how long in the future?)
August 28, 2009 at 10:08 AM #450664ParticipantCan anybody point at stronger fundamental economic data that supports higher stocks?
If not, then the rise in stocks is speculation that the economy recovers in the future (how long in the future?)
August 28, 2009 at 10:08 AM #450851ParticipantCan anybody point at stronger fundamental economic data that supports higher stocks?
If not, then the rise in stocks is speculation that the economy recovers in the future (how long in the future?)
August 28, 2009 at 11:22 AM #450691partypup
Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Partypup: In all seriousness, you cannot equate the gyrations of the stock market with anything happening in the larger economy.
The stock market is completely disconnected from any sort of reality right now and the momentum shifts and surges underscore this point.[/quote]
Yes, I know you’re right, Allan. It’s just that the cognitive dissonance has become so deafening that I am surprised ANYONE even buys this b.s anymore. But yet, they do. I just had breakfast with an unemployed lawyer, formerly a vice president at my company – out of work for 9 months with absolutely no prospects in sight – and she is burning through her savings…which happens to be 100% in the stock market. Now, if you are literally clinging to the last and only assets you have, why in God’s name would you put them in a gyrating stock market that is clearly being manipulated or artificially stoked? Why take the chance? Why not be in cash?
Like a gambler in vegas, she tells me that she’s already lost 50%, so she can’t walk away.
Lambs to the slaughter. There will be blood.
August 28, 2009 at 11:22 AM #450877Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Partypup: In all seriousness, you cannot equate the gyrations of the stock market with anything happening in the larger economy.
The stock market is completely disconnected from any sort of reality right now and the momentum shifts and surges underscore this point.[/quote]
Yes, I know you’re right, Allan. It’s just that the cognitive dissonance has become so deafening that I am surprised ANYONE even buys this b.s anymore. But yet, they do. I just had breakfast with an unemployed lawyer, formerly a vice president at my company – out of work for 9 months with absolutely no prospects in sight – and she is burning through her savings…which happens to be 100% in the stock market. Now, if you are literally clinging to the last and only assets you have, why in God’s name would you put them in a gyrating stock market that is clearly being manipulated or artificially stoked? Why take the chance? Why not be in cash?
Like a gambler in vegas, she tells me that she’s already lost 50%, so she can’t walk away.
Lambs to the slaughter. There will be blood.
August 28, 2009 at 11:22 AM #450282Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Partypup: In all seriousness, you cannot equate the gyrations of the stock market with anything happening in the larger economy.
The stock market is completely disconnected from any sort of reality right now and the momentum shifts and surges underscore this point.[/quote]
Yes, I know you’re right, Allan. It’s just that the cognitive dissonance has become so deafening that I am surprised ANYONE even buys this b.s anymore. But yet, they do. I just had breakfast with an unemployed lawyer, formerly a vice president at my company – out of work for 9 months with absolutely no prospects in sight – and she is burning through her savings…which happens to be 100% in the stock market. Now, if you are literally clinging to the last and only assets you have, why in God’s name would you put them in a gyrating stock market that is clearly being manipulated or artificially stoked? Why take the chance? Why not be in cash?
Like a gambler in vegas, she tells me that she’s already lost 50%, so she can’t walk away.
Lambs to the slaughter. There will be blood.
August 28, 2009 at 11:22 AM #450617Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Partypup: In all seriousness, you cannot equate the gyrations of the stock market with anything happening in the larger economy.
The stock market is completely disconnected from any sort of reality right now and the momentum shifts and surges underscore this point.[/quote]
Yes, I know you’re right, Allan. It’s just that the cognitive dissonance has become so deafening that I am surprised ANYONE even buys this b.s anymore. But yet, they do. I just had breakfast with an unemployed lawyer, formerly a vice president at my company – out of work for 9 months with absolutely no prospects in sight – and she is burning through her savings…which happens to be 100% in the stock market. Now, if you are literally clinging to the last and only assets you have, why in God’s name would you put them in a gyrating stock market that is clearly being manipulated or artificially stoked? Why take the chance? Why not be in cash?
Like a gambler in vegas, she tells me that she’s already lost 50%, so she can’t walk away.
Lambs to the slaughter. There will be blood.
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