60 Minutes: House of Cards

[NotCranky]

RAY “Steams me a bit that I didn’t have the balls to roll the dice back in 2000 and realize that there was very little downside risk. ”

Did you have the knowlege then that you have now? If so why did you think the market was risky in 2000? I hope when it hits a “2000” like period in the cycle again we all know what to do. It wasn’t really a fluke until 2003ish was it? I am not picking on you. I had a little bit of knowlege ,instincts and good luck but definitely did not know a fraction of what I have learned since coming here.

Hang in there. You know that houses will be a lot more affordable soon. One way or another.

[GunDoctor]

It really depends on how much more they can pay per month above the teaser rate. I belive that most of these folks streched so far and so hight that even a small bump up in monthly payments is going to cause problems. Without being able to refinance and get living money there will be nothing left after paying the rent..I mean mortgage.
I can’t see how prices could rally in the face of so much inventory already out there.
time will tell. If people with option arms reset and can afford the payments then I am happy that they get to keep their house…really. What I am counting on are the speculators whose intention was never really to live in a home but to make money, reset or not these homes are going back to the bank and will set future comps.
gun

[GunDoctor]

It really depends on how much more they can pay per month above the teaser rate. I belive that most of these folks streched so far and so hight that even a small bump up in monthly payments is going to cause problems. Without being able to refinance and get living money there will be nothing left after paying the rent..I mean mortgage.
I can’t see how prices could rally in the face of so much inventory already out there.
time will tell. If people with option arms reset and can afford the payments then I am happy that they get to keep their house…really. What I am counting on are the speculators whose intention was never really to live in a home but to make money, reset or not these homes are going back to the bank and will set future comps.
gun

[GunDoctor]

It really depends on how much more they can pay per month above the teaser rate. I belive that most of these folks streched so far and so hight that even a small bump up in monthly payments is going to cause problems. Without being able to refinance and get living money there will be nothing left after paying the rent..I mean mortgage.
I can’t see how prices could rally in the face of so much inventory already out there.
time will tell. If people with option arms reset and can afford the payments then I am happy that they get to keep their house…really. What I am counting on are the speculators whose intention was never really to live in a home but to make money, reset or not these homes are going back to the bank and will set future comps.
gun

[GunDoctor]

It really depends on how much more they can pay per month above the teaser rate. I belive that most of these folks streched so far and so hight that even a small bump up in monthly payments is going to cause problems. Without being able to refinance and get living money there will be nothing left after paying the rent..I mean mortgage.
I can’t see how prices could rally in the face of so much inventory already out there.
time will tell. If people with option arms reset and can afford the payments then I am happy that they get to keep their house…really. What I am counting on are the speculators whose intention was never really to live in a home but to make money, reset or not these homes are going back to the bank and will set future comps.
gun

[GunDoctor]

It really depends on how much more they can pay per month above the teaser rate. I belive that most of these folks streched so far and so hight that even a small bump up in monthly payments is going to cause problems. Without being able to refinance and get living money there will be nothing left after paying the rent..I mean mortgage.
I can’t see how prices could rally in the face of so much inventory already out there.
time will tell. If people with option arms reset and can afford the payments then I am happy that they get to keep their house…really. What I am counting on are the speculators whose intention was never really to live in a home but to make money, reset or not these homes are going back to the bank and will set future comps.
gun

[Coronita]

Gun, Raybyrnes,

 

I don't think people looking for deals will be disappointed. I think one thing to keep in mind though is that while primary home owners might to some extent be somewhat bailed out, isn't there the gamut of speculators/flippers that is still out there? Isn't SD a market that was highly speculative? If so, we should see some fallout, because I don't think those efforts to raise conforming limits etc are really going to help the speculators, save perhaps refinancing their own home to bridge over to their speculation, which would be a baffoon move… So I wouldn't say all is lost here. How that shakes out, heck knows. But something 's going to shake out. The 90ies RE recession I remember the worst got hit were the speculators and people who couldn't hold on. You still going to have a percentage of those people. Add in a Democratic Government win and a reduction of the defense spending following that, so cal economy will go into the crapper. Happened in the 90ies, and frankly the industry here isn't as diverse as one would think. We haven't seen nothing yet compared to the 90ies. You have people barely making it while still have relatively high employment. Wait to the effect of unemployment. Suddenly all the folks barely scrape by will now be in trouble. Doesn't matter how low you could refinance..If you don't got employment, you're still screwed…..Personally, I'm not looking forward to that if it happens..because it will be ugly.. But the defense spending days are numbered, i'm afraid. This is probably lousy advice..but folks that are I know that are working in the defense/gov sector…I'm telling them to get out now while they can. Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they'll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Gun, Raybyrnes,

 

I don't think people looking for deals will be disappointed. I think one thing to keep in mind though is that while primary home owners might to some extent be somewhat bailed out, isn't there the gamut of speculators/flippers that is still out there? Isn't SD a market that was highly speculative? If so, we should see some fallout, because I don't think those efforts to raise conforming limits etc are really going to help the speculators, save perhaps refinancing their own home to bridge over to their speculation, which would be a baffoon move… So I wouldn't say all is lost here. How that shakes out, heck knows. But something 's going to shake out. The 90ies RE recession I remember the worst got hit were the speculators and people who couldn't hold on. You still going to have a percentage of those people. Add in a Democratic Government win and a reduction of the defense spending following that, so cal economy will go into the crapper. Happened in the 90ies, and frankly the industry here isn't as diverse as one would think. We haven't seen nothing yet compared to the 90ies. You have people barely making it while still have relatively high employment. Wait to the effect of unemployment. Suddenly all the folks barely scrape by will now be in trouble. Doesn't matter how low you could refinance..If you don't got employment, you're still screwed…..Personally, I'm not looking forward to that if it happens..because it will be ugly.. But the defense spending days are numbered, i'm afraid. This is probably lousy advice..but folks that are I know that are working in the defense/gov sector…I'm telling them to get out now while they can. Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they'll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Gun, Raybyrnes,

 

I don't think people looking for deals will be disappointed. I think one thing to keep in mind though is that while primary home owners might to some extent be somewhat bailed out, isn't there the gamut of speculators/flippers that is still out there? Isn't SD a market that was highly speculative? If so, we should see some fallout, because I don't think those efforts to raise conforming limits etc are really going to help the speculators, save perhaps refinancing their own home to bridge over to their speculation, which would be a baffoon move… So I wouldn't say all is lost here. How that shakes out, heck knows. But something 's going to shake out. The 90ies RE recession I remember the worst got hit were the speculators and people who couldn't hold on. You still going to have a percentage of those people. Add in a Democratic Government win and a reduction of the defense spending following that, so cal economy will go into the crapper. Happened in the 90ies, and frankly the industry here isn't as diverse as one would think. We haven't seen nothing yet compared to the 90ies. You have people barely making it while still have relatively high employment. Wait to the effect of unemployment. Suddenly all the folks barely scrape by will now be in trouble. Doesn't matter how low you could refinance..If you don't got employment, you're still screwed…..Personally, I'm not looking forward to that if it happens..because it will be ugly.. But the defense spending days are numbered, i'm afraid. This is probably lousy advice..but folks that are I know that are working in the defense/gov sector…I'm telling them to get out now while they can. Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they'll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Gun, Raybyrnes,

 

I don't think people looking for deals will be disappointed. I think one thing to keep in mind though is that while primary home owners might to some extent be somewhat bailed out, isn't there the gamut of speculators/flippers that is still out there? Isn't SD a market that was highly speculative? If so, we should see some fallout, because I don't think those efforts to raise conforming limits etc are really going to help the speculators, save perhaps refinancing their own home to bridge over to their speculation, which would be a baffoon move… So I wouldn't say all is lost here. How that shakes out, heck knows. But something 's going to shake out. The 90ies RE recession I remember the worst got hit were the speculators and people who couldn't hold on. You still going to have a percentage of those people. Add in a Democratic Government win and a reduction of the defense spending following that, so cal economy will go into the crapper. Happened in the 90ies, and frankly the industry here isn't as diverse as one would think. We haven't seen nothing yet compared to the 90ies. You have people barely making it while still have relatively high employment. Wait to the effect of unemployment. Suddenly all the folks barely scrape by will now be in trouble. Doesn't matter how low you could refinance..If you don't got employment, you're still screwed…..Personally, I'm not looking forward to that if it happens..because it will be ugly.. But the defense spending days are numbered, i'm afraid. This is probably lousy advice..but folks that are I know that are working in the defense/gov sector…I'm telling them to get out now while they can. Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they'll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Gun, Raybyrnes,

 

I don't think people looking for deals will be disappointed. I think one thing to keep in mind though is that while primary home owners might to some extent be somewhat bailed out, isn't there the gamut of speculators/flippers that is still out there? Isn't SD a market that was highly speculative? If so, we should see some fallout, because I don't think those efforts to raise conforming limits etc are really going to help the speculators, save perhaps refinancing their own home to bridge over to their speculation, which would be a baffoon move… So I wouldn't say all is lost here. How that shakes out, heck knows. But something 's going to shake out. The 90ies RE recession I remember the worst got hit were the speculators and people who couldn't hold on. You still going to have a percentage of those people. Add in a Democratic Government win and a reduction of the defense spending following that, so cal economy will go into the crapper. Happened in the 90ies, and frankly the industry here isn't as diverse as one would think. We haven't seen nothing yet compared to the 90ies. You have people barely making it while still have relatively high employment. Wait to the effect of unemployment. Suddenly all the folks barely scrape by will now be in trouble. Doesn't matter how low you could refinance..If you don't got employment, you're still screwed…..Personally, I'm not looking forward to that if it happens..because it will be ugly.. But the defense spending days are numbered, i'm afraid. This is probably lousy advice..but folks that are I know that are working in the defense/gov sector…I'm telling them to get out now while they can. Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they'll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Mayer]

“Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they’ll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).”

I hear you on that one, from GD to MA/COM to Rohr. Everyone I knew was working in the same industry and we were all screwed at once.

I also agree that while the plunging rates will help out some folks, a lot of people have zilch saved up and won’t be able to hold on once unemployment takes its toll and the economy slows down. They’re currently only able to survive in a best case scenario (nothing breaks down, they’ll have their jobs forever with bi-annual raises, etc).

Also, I can’t see real estate making a crazy run again. Simple attrition will wear out speculators who are hoping for another roller coaster ride up. They’ll eventually realize that their money would be productive elsewhere.

A question I don’t have an answer to is what impact the boomers will have on the housing market? If the stock market cools and their variable annuity isn’t providing adequate income, will they sell their home to live on? Will they do it anyways irregardless of the stock market, and to hell with their heirs? How many of these folks are planning on selling their home to live off the income?

I think it’s too early to call a bottom because of Mr. Bernanke’s trigger finger.

[Mayer]

“Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they’ll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).”

I hear you on that one, from GD to MA/COM to Rohr. Everyone I knew was working in the same industry and we were all screwed at once.

I also agree that while the plunging rates will help out some folks, a lot of people have zilch saved up and won’t be able to hold on once unemployment takes its toll and the economy slows down. They’re currently only able to survive in a best case scenario (nothing breaks down, they’ll have their jobs forever with bi-annual raises, etc).

Also, I can’t see real estate making a crazy run again. Simple attrition will wear out speculators who are hoping for another roller coaster ride up. They’ll eventually realize that their money would be productive elsewhere.

A question I don’t have an answer to is what impact the boomers will have on the housing market? If the stock market cools and their variable annuity isn’t providing adequate income, will they sell their home to live on? Will they do it anyways irregardless of the stock market, and to hell with their heirs? How many of these folks are planning on selling their home to live off the income?

I think it’s too early to call a bottom because of Mr. Bernanke’s trigger finger.

[Mayer]

“Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they’ll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).”

I hear you on that one, from GD to MA/COM to Rohr. Everyone I knew was working in the same industry and we were all screwed at once.

I also agree that while the plunging rates will help out some folks, a lot of people have zilch saved up and won’t be able to hold on once unemployment takes its toll and the economy slows down. They’re currently only able to survive in a best case scenario (nothing breaks down, they’ll have their jobs forever with bi-annual raises, etc).

Also, I can’t see real estate making a crazy run again. Simple attrition will wear out speculators who are hoping for another roller coaster ride up. They’ll eventually realize that their money would be productive elsewhere.

A question I don’t have an answer to is what impact the boomers will have on the housing market? If the stock market cools and their variable annuity isn’t providing adequate income, will they sell their home to live on? Will they do it anyways irregardless of the stock market, and to hell with their heirs? How many of these folks are planning on selling their home to live off the income?

I think it’s too early to call a bottom because of Mr. Bernanke’s trigger finger.

[Mayer]

“Ask any aerospace/defense engineer from the 80ies/90ies, and they’ll have interesting stories to tell you. (like my pops).”

I hear you on that one, from GD to MA/COM to Rohr. Everyone I knew was working in the same industry and we were all screwed at once.

I also agree that while the plunging rates will help out some folks, a lot of people have zilch saved up and won’t be able to hold on once unemployment takes its toll and the economy slows down. They’re currently only able to survive in a best case scenario (nothing breaks down, they’ll have their jobs forever with bi-annual raises, etc).

Also, I can’t see real estate making a crazy run again. Simple attrition will wear out speculators who are hoping for another roller coaster ride up. They’ll eventually realize that their money would be productive elsewhere.

A question I don’t have an answer to is what impact the boomers will have on the housing market? If the stock market cools and their variable annuity isn’t providing adequate income, will they sell their home to live on? Will they do it anyways irregardless of the stock market, and to hell with their heirs? How many of these folks are planning on selling their home to live off the income?

I think it’s too early to call a bottom because of Mr. Bernanke’s trigger finger.

[Author]

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