you’re right i’m more on the sell side, though i’m open to counter arguments.
i mentioned the 400k figure since that is a comfortable profit with which to return to RE in a year. i agree, it isn’t about the amount, but with anything less (300k) it will all get absorbed in the new house+remodel, judging from my remodel experience.
also, i plan to sell all my furniture and literally move out with basic stuff like books, computers, necessities. minimize moving hassles.
if i stay, my ARM resets and payment goes up. i have saved for that eventuality but can’t see why i should use it now.
if i rent, my payments go down substantially, my tax liability goes up marginally, and i earn reasonable interest by not buying for a year. by early 2008, the picture should be clearer either way. in the rosiest scenario, if RE has plateaued, i could still buy an entry level home (same as before) with the capital i created here. if RE has plummetted, even with a high inerest loan, i could put more money down and bear the increased cost. i will buy to move in permanently if needed.
i understand these sound vague without numbers, and honestly i haven’t run them diligently. but based on mortgage calculators i can’t see how i gain by staying here and paying more for an increasingly turbulent asset.
