Yes patient, that is kind of my concern. If you look at a recent DQnews: http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0807.shtm
This downturn is happening in spite of major external stimulus. I know one can argue the credit market crunch is the stimulus, but I think it is so interrelated as to be tge same event, also SD was going down BEFORE the crunch, and helped to precipitate it.
“These are interesting times because the slowdown in home sales isn’t part of a broader economic slowdown, it’s a post-frenzy re-balancing act. The last time we had sales this slow, Southern California had been in recession for a few years. Jobs were being lost in droves, people were leaving the area and home prices fell significantly. This time around we haven’t seen that, sellers are holding out and we can only assume demand is building up,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
Looking at the state of the market, without some other external event, such as job losses (like Detroit), god forbid a major terror incident, or my point here, which is a major quake. I think a quake anywhere in SoCal will be akin to the subprime meltdown on Wallstreet where the meltdown reminded the street of the risks. With a major quake, even areas unaffected by the quake will drop harder than they would have simply because the RISK of quakes and the like will be brought back into the calculus. Given how long it has been, I don’t think people have factored it in.
What percentage of homes bought homes in the last ~10yrs since the previous major SoCal quake were by transplants from non-quake areas?
