We sold our house in Del Mar (near the beach) not quite a year ago, and it sold in the price range you’re talking about.
During the approx. 8 months our house was on the market, we received several wonderful, full-price offers, but they were contingent on the buyers’ sale of their own home. We turned them all down because being in the midst of trying to sell, more than most, we were acutely aware of how long it actually takes to sell a home these days, especially if you have an emotional connection to the home and/or are constantly being told you should not sell your house below a certain price, which was the case with us.
Obviously, this is just one seller’s experience, but to answer your question – no, I can’t imagine that many sellers in this area would take a contingent offer these days. Clearly, the real estate pros on this site have broader experience, but my thought is why would someone take a contingent offer? What’s in it for them? Chances are good that the seller realizes there’s not much upside…it’s very likely that the potential buyer will back out after a couple months when they finally find out that it takes foreeeeeeever to sell a house. Either that, or as prices continue to soften, especially in the high end, the buyer will come back and try to renegotiate a lower price, even if/after their house sells. Also, it takes a lot of time/energy to have your house on the market, and although it’s very tempting to take it off the market, most people realize that if the contingency falls through, it’s a major hassle to have to ramp up again to get your house back on the market.
The only way you might have luck is if your offer is on the high side and the seller has unrealistic hopes and expectations about the selling price of his/her home, and in the midst of their wishful thinking, they agree to your contingent offer…but in that case, obviously you will be overpaying.
As you’ve found, there are plenty of prime places in the Crosby, RSF, Olivenhein and the other areas you mentioned that are available now, and will continue to be available, at prices you’ll find very attractive…and, as they say, if you like the price today, you’ll love the price in several months, or whenever your house is sold! Don’t worry…you’re not going to miss out. Any perceived bargains, especially in the high end, are going to keep getting better. It’s not as if one day the prices will shoot sky high, and all of a sudden the houses you love will be unaffordable.
Best of luck to you in both selling your home and buying another, and welcome to the area!