The reason long term rates sometimes move in opposite direction of the short term fed funds rate is inflation expectations. When the fed lowers short term rates, demand (in theory) should increase, and thus avoiding (in theory) a recession (and weakening the dollar). However, increase in demand is inflationary (in theory). The longer dated bond market anticipates the future inflation and begins selling longer dated bonds thus increasing yields.
Some are calling the entire yield curve a bubble and when real inflation (CPI or GDP deflator or your own… man everything is expensive) kicks in you’ll see the selling in mass and interest rates shooting through the roof.
Also, when it comes to mortgage rates, their is a spread over the treasury rates that also varies according to current perceived credit risk, etc.
There are many takes including those from the deflation camp and it is very difficult to try to predict interest rates.
