The Henderson (Las Vegas) market rose 50% in the 12 months from July 2003 to June 2004. The market DIED during the last half of 2004, and all the signs were there that we were at the top – rising inventories, falling sales volume, etc. I bought in March 2004 with a 3-month lease-back and sold (panicked, to be honest) in July 2004, glad to get out with enough “profit” to cover my 4% commission and closing costs. Then interest rates went back down and the market rose another 25% in 2005. This mid-2006 top looks exactly like the mid-2004 one – the point is, you can’t say for sure until history proves out the timing.
