Short term, sure, sales activity will go up alittle. Wouldnt be surprised if the median creaped up alittle too as people start buying. But long term I still side with josh on this one. The special limits last till the end of the year? Then what? There were a number of people who waited till the the new limits came, they will buy, then what? Then there are even fewer buyers who qualify under the old rules in 2009. Ok with me. Be a knife catcher. Look what was it SD_R said? There were 5 sales compared to 6 last year? WOW! a -17% drop in sales. Say we get 7 sales next time, an AMAZING 40% increase!
This is a small but desirable submarket. People will still take out more money than they should, will still cash in the 401k and will still buy. Should they? No, but then again how many people do things every day they shouldnt.
As for my outlook on it. If you want to buy now, you should be happy, your morgage is being bought down by the gov for no cost to you ( your kids sure, but not you). If you are not buying this year, be glad. Prices will still fall by next year and you will be competing with even fewer buyers when you do buy. Rome was not built in a day, and its total distruction was not brough in one either.
On a completly other side note haveing to do with down payments I have a little story. I was the one who SD_R posted for about downs. It has been something of interest to me. I went home this weekend. Talked to my dad. He had been considering buying the neighbors property and it just sold to another buyer.
It went on sale in 2001 for 5 million. Owner bought for 2 million 12 years ago. It is 80 acres of avacado trees and the most KILLER of ocean/island views with a SHITTY SHITTY SHITTY house on the land. My dad didnt want to buy then, considered it overpriced. (wanted to pay 3.5-4 mil.) It didnt sell then, but it just closed at 21 million this month. OUCH! “HOW?” I asked, “that is INSAINE!”
“Simple” my dad replyed, “the only thing worth anything anymore. Oil money.” Damn, guess someone always has money.
