[quote=sdduuuude]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.
I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[/quote]
Yes, there are hysterical people on all sides of every argument, and I certainly agree with you on your over/under. But that doesn’t really change the point I was trying to make, which is that 6 months ago, the conventional wisdom was that serious deflation was a big risk (you need look no further than the Fed’s policy to see that). Now, here we are talking about prices of certain key items rising very rapidly.
That transition is interesting. So again, I can’t speak for anyone else, but to me the crux of this topic is not that yoy CPI is all that high (it isn’t) but that there has been a fairly rapid change in price pressures and the perceptions thereof.
[quote=sdduuuude]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.
Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement.
[/quote]
It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)
