[quote=paramount]cabal I think you’ve been spending a little to much time in that San Diego sun.
I think in 10 or 20 years we will be looking back at 1 or 2 lost decades if we’re lucky.
Will we survive? Sure, but the impact of this crisis has already changed the way most people live.[/quote]
Paramont – I like the sun. You should come out from your bunker and check it out sometime 🙂
We have learned a lot from Japans lost decade, past bubbles, the great depression, etc. I’m optimistic ours won’t last that long, assuming aggressive fiscal stimulus/interventions are allowed to continue countering the lack of corporate and consumer spending. I expect recovery to commence once balance sheets are somewhat cleansed, consumer debt is under control via positive household cash flow, or a new bubble is started, similar to the tech bubble burst being rescued by the housing bubble. Banks have cash, but rates should stay low due to low demand and lack of interbank trust. As for inflation, what’s that ? The growth in money supply is primarily due to govt (waste) spending and does not necessarily translate into demand for goods and services. Further, any discretionary cash available to businesses and consumers are being applied to pay down debt, not circulating in the economy.
It should be crystal clear that the housing meltdown is being treated as a matter of national security and as such, all resources available to the United States will be utilized. My only real concern are the non-recourse loans which allow homeowners to walk. If prices continue to decline and homeowners decide to walk in large numbers, then we will have anarchy. If that happens stocking your garage with 20 cases of Costco water and buying ammo from WalMart the day they restock ain’t gonna cut it.
