OK, so we agree I think that “fundamentals” for RE are payments and rent (or rent+income), but other factors can dominate fundamentals in the short to medium term.
Looking at those other factors, I think they are generally bullish: lots of prior buyers are sitting on nice gains, every homeowner with a brain and good credit has refi’d into low rates and can hold/rent if they buy another house, supply growth is very low, income growth is fairly good, wealth effects from stock market gains, and long-term trends favor places with clean environments, good weather, and low crime.
Affordability of down payments and conservative banks are the main damper on things.
Regarding “this time is different,” inequality just keeps getting worse and I believe now has broken the old records from the Gilded Age. And we’ve never had such an old population with such a low birthrate, and the concept of demographic momentum means even a big increase in the birthrate, as unlikely as that would be, would take a very long time to change these trends.
