Not a bear market yet by the standard 20% decline measure. We got really close though.
I see stocks and RE both performing in the mid single digits in 2019.
For US stocks, weak profit growth is the negative, low valuations and lack of better alternative investments is the positive.
The Trump tax cut was a large, single, permanent boost to corporate profits. Valuations just don’t reflect that giant boost to profits anymore.
I was a bystander to both the mid-year bull market and subsequent sharp fall as I was 0% in stocks. So this isn’t my motivated thinking.
Regarding consumer confidence, Americans really get a mental boost from low gas prices. Our Cal gas tax obscures this. But in much of the USA, gas is in the $1.70-$2.00 range.
