[quote=kev374]
I hope Rich is only referring to SD real estate. Here in Orange County things are in a full fledged bubble. Even Trulia rates OC as 20% overvalued and they are usually conservative.
[/quote]
Yes I am referring to SD but everything I’ve seen indicates that the situation is very similar in OC. As it happens, I also show SD as being 20% overvalued. Expensive, for sure, but there is a difference between expensive and a “bubble.” By comparison, SD housing became 80% overvalued during the bubble.
[quote=kev374]
And finally for concrete proof..my friend bought his condo in Ladera at the very peak of the last bubble for $600k and sold it last month for $585k.
[/quote]
This proves absolutely nothing. At this point, the bubble peak was almost a decade ago! Rents and incomes, which are what support home prices, are much higher now than they were at the peak.
[quote=kev374]
I hope Rich can substantiate his claims. I bet he will say something to the effect of inflation and rents but that is nonsense. My rent is lower now than I was paying in 2005 and in a nicer area.[/quote]
Ah, so here is the heart of the disagreement. You feel that rents are lower now than at the peak. If this were true, you would have a point — but it’s not. There is no chance that OC-wide rents are lower now than they were in 2006 or wherever you want to mark the bubble peak.
As for substantiating my claims, I have done so via graphs like the one below that are based on sourced, publicly available data… how about substantiating yours?
