JWM, I didn’t say or at least I didn’t mean to imply that were in a historicaly comparable time, we are not. I only pointed out that historicaly the down cycle takes as long or longer than the up. I do reserve the right to be wrong because the upswing was so crazy all historical models are moot. I am ready for it, I want it to happen, if homes cost 100k tomorrow I would be elated, but I just don’t think that’s going to happen. It’s just the method they are traded and used they have never had the volitility of other assets and the method slows things. I am not in the R/E industry and I am here to get as much insight as I can to time the market this time. I was unlucky in 1992 and lucky in 1997, here in 2007/2008 I want to combine some wisdom into the equation so I don’t have to entirely base things on luck. It is as if the summer averaged 150 degrees and we are trying to figure out what winter will bring. Some say it will be colder than normal because hot summers normally bring cold winters, some say hotter than normal because the temperature has shifted. Whatever happens, there has never been a 150 degree average in summer so all I am convinced of is come winter, I would real suprised if it was “normal” winter.
And Wiley, I have not seen any info on the Japanese bust but I will look into it.
