jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.
He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.
Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?
You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.
