It looks to me we are coming off a classic bear market rally……suckers rally whatever you want to call it. The bulls were all clamoring that the credit crisis was in the 9th inning and the S&P was projecting a 20+% increase in earnings during the second half of this year. Well we are going into the second half of the year and it appears we are only now entering the recession. John Mauldin had a good piece this week about The Road To Revulsion
“”We have seen the heads of virtually all financial institutions stand up over the last few months and claim the worst is behind us. Why would anyone listen to these people? They didn’t see the disaster coming, and yet somehow they are qualified to tell us it is all alright! Perhaps I am just unduly sceptical, but this reeks of a conspiracy of optimism. The recession has barely started, let alone reached its nadir. The market moves of late have all the hallmarks of a classic sucker’s rally. This isn’t discounting the recovery, this is denial! Far from being behind us, the worst may well still be ahead!””
