I have theory that America’s satellite commuter cities will turn into ghost towns when their lack of convenient mass transportation collides with full onset of Peak Oil.
I predict you’ll be knocked over at the magnitude of this, when it happens.
I acknowledge it could easily take 10 years, but could happen as sooner, say in five to seven years. I do NOT believe it will happen in the next five years (due to deflationary forces in effect through major portion of that five-year period)
However, long-term think of gas costing not $5 or $10, but $20 or more per gallon, measured in today’s dollars – but against a backdrop of a much lower American standard of living.
Average Americans will not be able to afford to drive gasoline cars
Cities like Temecula will end up with vast areas of abandoned homes.
I have a lot of theories, blah blah blah. Here’s another theory: it (economic depression) will end with riots in the streets of most large cities, and huge increases in crime, frightening increases particularly in cities like San Diego (proximity to Mexico, large poor illegal immigrant population). This has implications for housing prices.
It implies there IS a specialty sector of housing that will appreciate significantly more than most: homes buried deep inside the (presently) safest areas plus residing within WALLED zones that you can only enter at single gate manned with armed security guards.
You may think there are too few such areas currently available with all those features; however, you should search for sites that can be quickly UPGRADED to have these features. For example, wealthier subdivisions that are already completely surrounded now by some form of perimeter fence and only have one or two entrances. Ten years on and those residents will have demanded that it be converted to say a 10 ft tall concrete wall (maybe with barbed wire on top), and the subdivision will have one gated entrance with armed guards where your ID has to match to resident name list to gain entry.
The dynamic is that the rich will get scared. Then they will flock to highly secure housing areas. That will drive the price way up.
