I believe that the growing number of foreclosures will be “The Main” statistic that will indicate just how low the prices will go in specific areas of any bubble market.
*As an example, take the Temecula area. Lot’s of foreclosures=very deep price drops.
*Conversely, North County Coastal=Much smaller number of foreclosures=no where near the price drops that are occurring in the Temecula area.
*Same goes for the Riverside/San Bernadino area vs other areas of Orange County & Los Angeles that have far fewer foreclosures.
*The unknown variable is the upcoming loans with ARM resets that will occur over the next three years in the areas that are presently not seeing the deep price drops. IF…………areas like Carmel Valley, La Costa and Encinitas start experiencing a huge increase in foreclosures, I believe that the prices will drop, just as they have in Temecula/Riverside, etc. As all of the Piggs know, once you have a large percentage of foreclosures, those homes will be sold at prices substantially lower than they were bought for which will lower the value and comps of the neighboring homes.
There was a recent thread concerning SD housing inventory dropping again. This could or could not be relevant to the possibility of seeing the bottom. I don’t think it’s enough information to make that assessment yet. To me, what’s most important is to watch the present prices and the number of foreclosures in an area where I would want to buy. All I have to do is wait and watch those two statistics. There are only so many buyers now that every Tom, Dick and Jose can’t just walk in and put his X on contract and walk out with a home. In addition, there are a lot of sellers “who want to sell” but “do not have to sell” who have not listed their properties with the hope that prices will rebound within a year or two. I have read articles about this. If the foreclosures start hitting their neighborhoods in high enough numbers and the prices start plummeting, many of these people may panic and throw their homes back on the market before prices drop any further, which will expedite the process of getting to the bottom.
One thing is certain: When the bottom is found, prices are not going to start rising again until inventories are brought into line………………and that is going to take years, not months to accomplish.
