I believe that sounds about right. Historically, the S&P 500, never had a negative return over any rolling 10-year period. It’s not really a 10 year downturn, but if there’s a downturn, you might need the next several years to recoup the losses.
I was looking into this a few years ago read up on the galeno strategy, bucket of $$, etc.. One of the best books I got from a clearance bin is Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth’s book titled Yes, You Can Still Retire Comfortably! In this book the authors ran and compared the outcome of a few scenarios of the various investment strategy. Highly recommended.
