You may have a good point there. I just ran across this.
“Trade provided the biggest surprise, when exports fell unexpectedly and imports continued growing, subtracting half a percentage point from economic growth, according to the report.
Economists pointed out that the preliminary data on trade is particularly sketchy because the government did not yet have a good handle on exports and imports in March. But the data bewildered some analysts, who pointed out that the combination of a weak dollar and faster growth in Europe and elsewhere should be providing a lift to exports.
“We completely discount this number,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight of Lexington, Mass. “It’s inconsistent with everything else going on in the world.”
He suggested the estimate for first-quarter exports could be revised upward. And if not, he predicted, exports should record a sharp upswing in the spring quarter that is under way now.”
There is a strong tug of war going on. Let’s see how consumer spending plays out also. Right now that data is like looking into a rear view mirror.
