Here is what I said on my site May 2006 (2 years ago). The reason I said dont worry about a quarry because the foreclosures and section 8’s that are going to move in are going to do a tad more damage. Believe me or not like everyone else didnt 2 years ago.
May 2006:
“Temecula, Menifee, Murrieta, and South Riverside county are going to lose their home prices more so than most areas. The reason why is that mainly military, commuters, and retirees live there that can afford homes (unless Circuit City/Cost Co employees wages have quadrupled). There aren’t many factories within those areas to support double home prices that have occurred over the last few years.
“No way this cant happen they aren’t making anymore land”. True but when you can buy a lot of acres for pennies on the dollar (even though they are inflated way to high still now), the cost beats buying the “McMansions” with that huge 4,000sqft lot. The homes have soared out of control hence the for sale signs you see all around (it isn’t the interest rates that everyone is talking about its because prices have DOUBLED!). We have now past inventory levels of the mid 1990’s crash and are looking to be in a nasty decline. You have to view all that has happened in the last few years and ask yourself, “should I rent or should I rent money from a lender to buy a home”. After you weigh in that HUGE (joking) tax break. Lets see, pay double the price to rent money to buy, pay tons more in interest to receive only 30% back, historic property taxes, and maintenance. Back a few years ago it was safe because if you could not sell you could rent it for what your mortgage was or more. Now do you really think that someone will rent your $450,000 MORTGAGE FOR $3,000 A MONTH WITH RENTS IN THIS AREA AT $1500.00? GOOD LUCK..
Risk is higher than ever if you buy now
If you buy and plan to live there a long time it still matters because if it dropped while you lived there than you could have gotten it for less and you still paid to much for the property and still lose.
People that have bought a house in 2005 are already under and can’t sell their home. Check proof link
Always go off data such as inventory levels, history trends, and current sales data. Never ever go for the realtors line of “prices never go down”, “by now or you will never be able to buy”, and my favorite “they aren’t making anymore land”
Read all the post/links and judge for yourself. If you buy today two things are sure to happen:
1. You will aid in RE market prices slowing down in that area instead of crashing
2. You will start loosing money off your home right away
Any other suggestions of RE prices going up based 40% of specuvestors (speculators and investors) bought in year 2005 and yanked the market far out of reach for the normal buyers is just silly. Now the sellers that need to sell are up against investors and new home builders. You can thank them for your DOM (days on the market) being so high. Also people have been using their homes as ATM machines and paying off their debts, divorces, and all sorts of nonsense. Do you really want to buy a home and pay for their old expenses and give them money to go buy another home cash in another state? Think about it wisely. Don’t put your whole family at risk by buying an over priced home that is going to “vomit equity”.
Mostly everyone knows that South Riverside county draws commuters (at over $3.00 a gallon). How are homes in that area going to hold value after most prices have doubled? With 40% of 2005 buyers out of the way (investors), it can’t.
Any ARM holders out there you better have already refinanced. If you can’t afford the higher interest then you shouldn’t have bought a home. If you are selling you better dump the price. This time period is the best time to sell *normally. If your sitting on your home at the end of the summer then you will be up against new home builders and investors that will dump further than you because you have emotion adding in with your transaction and they don’t. Sellers are going to learn that their home appreciated 200% not because the home moved to a better location or gained 1000 sqft on it’s own. Only because a strong demand of investors, speculators, scared first time buyers, and people cashing out is what drove it up. Do you really think that a gain that large that came from thin air can hold? If the answer you think is yes than you should refinance it all the way up and buy as many homes as you possibly can. If people really thought that “real estate never goes down”, then there WOULDN’T be any inventory at all. It would all be bought up. You are starting to see the obvious signs of a bull market turning into a bear market. Remember that market price is what a buyer will pay not because a comp in the area states its worth X amount of dollars. There aren’t as many retarded buyers out there (still some but starting to change drastically).
Temecula Inventory
July 1st 1416 for sale—Population is 93,923. That’s 1 home for sale per 66 people including everyone. (kids, wives, husbands, brothers, grandmas, and grandpas in the city)” End of 2006 write
Today April 30th 2008, 1353 houses using same data instrument.
That was an inch of info I had on my site and nobody listened so I gave up trying to help. Like I said before dont worry about the quarry.
