DesperateBuyer, thanks for responding, but you are all wrong.
I think its safe to say that when some housing quadruples in value in less than 10 years, you have in fact a bubble. In Temecula at least, some homes back in 1996 were under $100k, the same homes in 2005 was just over $400k(Paloma Del Sol single story 3/2).
Then you talk of a huge collapse in the dollar which is true, but you have to have a huge increase in wages for your theory to make at least a little sense. I don't see wages quadrupling or even doubling since 1996. Do you? Teachers, Police, Fire Dept., Retail, Food industry, health care, etc… you thing that they should go and buy that million dollar home, cause it'll be worth it due to a falling dollar???? HAHA You assume that everyone living in SD county makes well over six figures. That will be interesting, because thats the minimum you'll need to make to buy a place with current prices.
But would I suggest taking on a fixed rate mortgage right now and buying a house you planned to live in for some time? Absolutely. Owning a home IS the American Dream and if we see the price inflation that I expect is going to shortly be upon us, then a fixed rate mortgage at today's low interest rate will not seem so bad at all….
Hmm.. with what money? First time buyers have no down payment. All they are used to is 100% financing!!! You call that owning a home??? This is your American Dream? Getting married to a $2500 plus payment is a great privilege?
Indeed, the only bubble is the group of "housing bubble" message boards, which I do predict will prove to have no intrinsic or lasting value. Instead they will only serve to scare some people away from buying a house and living the miserable life of a renter. A true shame in my opinion.
What is a shame is that my good friends didn't listen to me 2 years ago. They wouldn't be facing a huge payment thats about to reset even higher. They would be living in a much nicer home than the 2/2 that they currently "own". They wouldn't be panicking as homes aren't even selling for the same as what they paid for theirs. And yes, I too am a renter, though hardly miserable. Sold in 05 and safely invested the money. I live in a beautiful home close to work, and my investment is going up in value, while all the neighbors that own next to me are loosing cash every day, listing their homes, only to pull them off the market due to inactivity and low ball offers. Now thanks for visiting our site, but I think they are missing you over at CNBC.
