[quote=davelj]Taleb’s primary thesis is that as humans we systematically underestimate the frequency and importance of random events; that is, we underestimate the role of luck (randomness) in our lives.[/quote]
Reminds me of one of my favorite StarTrek exchanges (from the original series):
Spock: “Random chance seems to have operated in our favor”.
McCoy: “In plain, non-Vulcan English: We’ve been lucky.”
Spock: “I believe I said that, Doctor”.
[quote=davelj] This article, among other things, addresses the fact that humans systematically overestimate their understanding of all sorts of things. One of the themes that’s discussed is one I’ve mentioned here at the Pigg many times: What you know is not nearly as important as knowing/acknowledging what you don’t know. As humans we’re all bad at this to varying degrees. [/quote]
Spot-on, davelj. I’ve advised students many times over to ask questions, and pointed out that the only way to get to know something that you don’t already know is to ask questions. Without questions, there is no learning; without learning, there is no knowledge. Sounds ridiculously simplistic, like one of those “inspirational” posters that they sell at office supply stores. But it’s mind-boggling how many people, in all age groups, will not ask questions. Is it that they’re too embarrassed to ask, or that they simply lack intellectual curiosity?
However, several years back, I became aware of the phenomenon of “not knowing what you don’t know”, and shortly thereafter, realized that there are many people who will not acknowledge that there may be things that they do not know, including things that are essential to doing their jobs. The most glaring recent example that comes to mind – and I am NOT hijacking the thread – is Sarah Palin. Despite the fact that her experience included 6 years as mayor of a town of less than 6000 people in a relatively isolated state, and 18 months as that state’s governor, she insists that she never hesitated about accepting McCain’s offer. Since that time, she appears to have made no effort to fill the gaps that exist in her base of knowledge – indeed, she doesn’t seem to acknowledge to herself that any such gaps exist. Given the seriousness with which she gave (and repeatedly defended) answers such as “They’re our next-door neighbors, and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska” to reporters expressing doubts about her foreign policy knowledge and experience, it would certainly appear that Ms. Palin is afflicted with anosognosia as described in the article.
Again, in mentioning Ms. Palin, I’m not attempting to sway the direction of this thread to one that is political. I think the subject matter of the NYT article is strong enough to stand on its own, and hope that other Piggs will weigh in with their thoughts and opinions on it. I’ve come across many people employed in positions who not only aren’t in possession of the skills and knowledge to perform the duties required by the job, but are entirely unaware that such gaps exist. It’s almost as though they believe “having” the job constitutes “doing” the job. It’s scary.
