I think the market will make a pretty strong upward move into the beginning of August. We are short term very overbought, so a small correction could happen at any time. If we happen to get even a small rally in bonds, we will be off to the races I think. If bonds continue weak, the equity rally will be more moderate.
Just my opinion, but I put my money where my mouth is. The commercials are heavily long, and big selloffs do not usually happen when this is the case. The only thing that would make me change this view is if todays upward gap is filled quickly.
