I do not think we will see a recession this year, but I do think we will see a good sized stock market drop at the end of the summer. I do have another business interest that is pretty closely tied to day in day out corporate activity, and that business has been very slow for the last 60 days.
Their is a 10 yr cycle due this year for stock market tops in late summer, but we will have to see as we approach if the stage is set properly for the selloff. Maybe that will lead to a recession next year, I am not sure. I am not an economist, just a dumb trader.
I think they are too smart for their own good. Their models get so complex and contain so many variables, that they get lost in the forest. For now the trends are up in both the economy and stocks, so go with the trend until it changes.
