Cagan did not say “chance of default”, but “risk of default”. He EXPECTS them to default. I did not say “1 mil loans WILL default”, but that Cagan expects it.
I’ve read the NYT piece and reread it and nowhere do I get the impression that Cagan expects all of the at-risk loans to default. How do you arrive at that conclusion?
Perhaps the nuance escapes me but please explain the difference between “chance of default” and “risk of default”.
