Based on that graph it should go up by I think it will be multiplied. Last year’s resets were less than half or next years and we’ve seen the effect that had. The upcoming resets will have an ever harder time. There are twice as many of them, resales prices are lower, time on market is longer, the availability of the exotic loans is diminishing and more of them were buyers at the peak so more will be upside down. The forclosures and distress sales that hit the market in the last year had more cusion than those in the upcoming 12 months. Today’s repos represent only the dumbest buyers who went exotic 0 down and heloc’d out all their equity that they gained 2003-2006. The next twelve months almost all of the exotic 0 downs will fail because they won’t be able to roll into another loan like that, they won’t be able to sell because they bought at peak and they don’t qualify for conventional financing. Even the few exotic lenders left won’t want to make a loan for 110% ltv in todays climate. So instead of 15% of the loans going bad, 30-50% will and there are twice as many, further depessing prices and making the fundamentals even worse. It’s a snowball effect. It takes most borrowers a little bit of time to get into trouble, after their reset they usually make the higher payments for a while, then it’s about 6 months before foreclosure so we see the real effects much later than the timeline of the graph, which means this fall the other shoe starts to drop and we don’t see the end until 2010.
