I cannot fortell the future, but I expect housing prices to go down by atleast 15-20% over the next 5 years in San diego. Attempting to purchase something below current market value provides some downside protection against this expected decline.
But purchasing a home is not purely investment decision – there are other factors such as kids education, spousal pressure etc. The main criteria for me in purchasing a house would something I can afford, using a regular 30 year loan and regular downpayment, in a good school district. Having said that, I am in no hurry – I can probably wait for another year. But I believe unless I start looking now, I won’t know if a deal is there.
I have spoken with a couple of buyers agents and they would rather like me to buy something within the next couple of months. They don’t like my model of waiting for the right deal – understandably so, since they want to get their job done quickly and get the comission. So, right now i am looking on my own – with help from the internet and folks like you on this forum.