A few weeks ago an ECRI headline was Eurozone and US currently resistant to recession.
July 15
Recoveries Remain Resilient
Growing ranks of the great and the good are worried that the global economy, like Humpty Dumpty, will have a great fall, never to be put together again. We understand their apprehension, given our concern since the summer of 2008 about collapsing trend growth.
But in terms of our current assessment of global recession risk, we aren’t ready to join in. This is because the major developed economies aren’t yet in windows of vulnerability that our leading indexes are designed to detect.
