Housing has been coming down but this recent spike in interest rates in my opinion is the official start of the bubble blowing up. A 2/3% increase and not even a breath of it in the Union tribune. This increase is enough to put out a lot of home owners who could have otherwise afforded a reset in June or July. The timing couldn’t have been any worse for the millions of home owners that were supposed to peak in the number of resets this month and next. The blood bath is going to be OUTRAGEOUS and it is sad to see so many people are going to get nailed.
The bubble collapse started a little over a year ago in the OC. In San Diego, it started almost two years ago.
In five years, when we look back and factor in inflation, the peak and corner turn will be obvious.
Two years to bottom, then a short languish there and in 3-4 years from now, bottom pricing will remain but sales volume will increase. Which might just be in time for the Alt-A 5 year ARMs to kick it in the groin.
The bubble collapse started a little over a year ago in the OC. In San Diego, it started almost two years ago.
In five years, when we look back and factor in inflation, the peak and corner turn will be obvious.
Two years to bottom, then a short languish there and in 3-4 years from now, bottom pricing will remain but sales volume will increase. Which might just be in time for the Alt-A 5 year ARMs to kick it in the groin.
I agree with n_s_r, this started almost 2 years ago in San Diego. This run-up in rates is just the accelerant that will enhance the on-going process.
The quiet behind this increase is very eerie.
I don’t understand this statement either. The recent run-up in bond rates has been the number 1 issue in financial media over the past week.
I agree with n_s_r, this started almost 2 years ago in San Diego. This run-up in rates is just the accelerant that will enhance the on-going process.
The quiet behind this increase is very eerie.
I don’t understand this statement either. The recent run-up in bond rates has been the number 1 issue in financial media over the past week.
I think all the priced out,credit hungry fence sitters(as opposed to non priced out fence sitters), an would be re-fiers didn’t go to work today,so it was “erie” and “quiet” on the freeway or break room or something of that nature.
I think all the priced out,credit hungry fence sitters(as opposed to non priced out fence sitters), an would be re-fiers didn’t go to work today,so it was “erie” and “quiet” on the freeway or break room or something of that nature.
I thought most of the ARMs resetting this year will reprice to the prevailing market rate. As I understand it, the market rate for most of these loans is a short-term rate (like 11th district COFI or other short-term rate driven off of the fed funds rate). So the spike in long-term rates will have little immediate impact on the position of borrowers facing ARM reset. Of course the impact on affordability for the would-purchaser looking to finance with 30yr fixed is a different story.
I thought most of the ARMs resetting this year will reprice to the prevailing market rate. As I understand it, the market rate for most of these loans is a short-term rate (like 11th district COFI or other short-term rate driven off of the fed funds rate). So the spike in long-term rates will have little immediate impact on the position of borrowers facing ARM reset. Of course the impact on affordability for the would-purchaser looking to finance with 30yr fixed is a different story.
