- This topic has 13 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 6 months ago by
an.
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April 24, 2007 at 1:15 PM #8919April 24, 2007 at 1:26 PM #51004
SD Realtor
ParticipantSome people get it and some do not. Kemerton originally was 503-530 and repriced on 4/19. There is another Granby at 519k.
April 24, 2007 at 1:48 PM #51012an
ParticipantI agree w/ SD Realtor, some people get it and some don’t.
April 24, 2007 at 1:53 PM #51014PerryChase
ParticipantI like to look at listings on SDlookup although you can’t save them.
Interesting to see nearby homes with exactly same square footage.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076008768-10550_Kemerton_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076009303-10650_Granby_Way_San_Diego_CA_92126
April 24, 2007 at 3:24 PM #51023jimmyle
ParticipantEarlier my fiancee and I was thinking about making an offer of $480K for the Granby’s house (which was listed at $525K). Luckily, I found this website, bought in your analyses, and told my fiancee to wait. Wow, we basically saved $50K already.
Lets say the Kemerton house will be sold at $440K. It is going to be shown clearly on Zillow.com and that will affect the pricing for the entire neighborhood. At this rate these houses might be going for $420-430K at the end of this year.
April 24, 2007 at 3:41 PM #51029unbiasedobserver
Participantjimmy, let me try to save you and your fiancee some more money, wait until these are asking $175K before putting in an offer.
April 24, 2007 at 3:45 PM #51030ParticipantWow, $175k? Are you serious? That would be back to pre-1990 price. Unless rates go up above 10%, I don’t see that happening. Mortgage on such loan would be 1/2 that of the cost to rent an apartment in Mira Mesa.
April 24, 2007 at 4:07 PM #51035ParticipantI think these houses were about $260K in 2000 when I just graduated from UCSD and made $50K/yr. Everyone was telling me to buy one. I thought buying a $260K home with my salary was stretching it so I didn’t. Another reason was during the 90’s prices stay almost flat so I didn’t expect house prices to balloon. As the price went up and I couldn’t afford it any longer, they kept telling me “I told you so man”. Admittedly, between 2003-2005,I regretted the decision of not buying in 2000.
I think $175K is too low, assumming inflation is 3.5% and home prices in 2000 were economically sound.
Then $260K x 1.035^7 = $331K (2007)
But I think it might not go down this low. It might goes to around $410-420K, stalls and let inflation catches up some times in 2009-2010.
April 24, 2007 at 4:07 PM #51036no_such_reality
ParticipantI would expect to see some support at $450K. That’s a good 20% below what others are wishing for.
I’m not saying it won’t go lower, but I expect some pausing in the SD market every $50K or so on these more average homes.
April 24, 2007 at 4:11 PM #510395yearwaiter
Participant5yearswaiter
I am sure many such price differences would show up soon. This is mainly due to the facts people buy those houses in different price ranges. A friend of mine bought one house at park village around 500K and after 3 months at 2004 another one bought the similar kind of house simply at 600K. Just a wild guess when people got the time to sell sure they have to really show the difference in prices respectively.
April 24, 2007 at 4:40 PM #51040Participantasianautica, I have a feeling that rates have nowhere to go but up (after a Fed’s failed attempt to rescue the market). There are too many structural problems that we need to fix in our economy. Easy money is not the way to go.
Remember that subprime borrowers are already paying anywhere from 8% – 12% on their firsts and seconds.
April 24, 2007 at 5:43 PM #51047ParticipantFed fund rate maybe be heading up, but that’s no guarantee that mortgage rate will follow. We can very well see an inverse yield curve instead of a flatten yield curve. I mean, short term rate has been on the rise the last couple of years and long term rate went no where. Doesn’t inverse yield curve lead to a recession? If so, then isn’t the recession some are predicting will be lead/follow by inverse yield curve? This might affect those ARM loans but won’t move 30 year fixed rate much if at all. Just my guess.
April 25, 2007 at 9:40 AM #51085ParticipantSetting your baseline at 2000 is incorrect. Prices in SD started appreciating noticeably in 1997, well before most of the rest of the country. While I do not know the interior condition of the houses in question, I did look at some fairly nice houses in mid-MM around 1995 which were in the 170’s for about 1700sft (in neighborhoods which are considerably nicer than the Flanders area, or were back then anyway), and noone was knocking down the doors to buy them. Therefore I would set your baseline at $100/sft and add your normal appreciation adjustment to that. You can now buy townhouses in Carmel Valley for $400/sft, so for houses in MM to be similarly priced seems absolutely ridiculous IMO. However I do not want to argue now, let’s just check back and update this thread 5-7 years from now. Do believe me however when I tell you the last downcycle lasted from 1990-1997 and the proceding runup wasn’t anything like the one we are coming off of. Good luck, especially if you go ahead and buy now.
April 25, 2007 at 10:27 AM #51093ParticipantDo believe me however when I tell you the last downcycle lasted from 1990-1997 and the proceding runup wasn’t anything like the one we are coming off of.
That’s exactly what worries me with the idea of soft landing that some people are suggesting. If there’s a crash, we’ll see the same cycle length. If we have a slow soft landing, it might take one or two decades for inflation to catch up. Personally, I’d rather have crash and rally than flatness for decades.
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