Anyone know what “George” is saying now? About his condo or about the mess housing is in. Who is he blaming now?
This is what he said August 11/07 before the Fed acted on August 17th..
American Dream is still alive
By: GEORGE CHAMBERLIN – For the North County Times
Let me begin by passing along my congratulations to the many people who are celebrating the current situation in the housing market. In concert with much of the national and local media, they have been able to artificially construct something that has never —- I repeat, never —- been done before: drive down housing prices at a time when unemployment is low, the economy is booming and consumer confidence is approaching record highs.
A column I wrote about a year ago on the housing market triggered more hate mail than any other topic that I have discussed. I needed to check underneath my car and use a food taster for a couple of weeks after I suggested that the situation was dramatically overstated.
To be clear, in that column, I said right up front that I had no idea where housing prices were heading in the short term. Nor did I really care. I am not a speculator, so I could care less what changes might occur as far as the “market value” of my two personal residences is concerned. The value of these homes is better measured by the benefits they provide as a place to live for the rest of my life.
I also said that I couldn’t quite grasp the unbridled joy that the doom-and-gloomers seemed to have about the possibility that many families might lose their homes in a downturn. If flippers get burned, so be it. But there was elation being expressed that households would be disrupted in the correction.
To be sure, I know the ulterior motives behind these attitudes. But since I don’t want to crawl around and look under my car again or have someone taste my food, I’ll leave that alone.
I love a good debate, and there are many sides to the real estate argument. One of the biggest bears is David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch, who said there is an additional 5 percent downside to housing prices. In other words, home prices could potentially dip over the next year the same amount that the stock market corrected in the last two trading sessions.
However, at Wachovia Securities, Mark Vitner says: “We are continuing to stand by our forecast that sales of both new and existing homes bottom out this summer. Once sales stop falling, the modest drop in physical inventories should begin to translate into a decline in the month’s supply figures.”
But never mind what a couple of Wall Streeters think about the housing market. I refer everyone to a new report, “California’s Deepening Housing Crisis.” It comes from the Department of Housing and Community Development and, somehow, the media seemed to ignore the news when it was released two weeks ago.
“Housing production has not kept pace with the state’s housing needs particularly in the coastal metropolitan areas,” cites the report. As populations swell and home availability ultimately shrinks, a crisis looms.
When I read in this paper last week that plans for a three-story housing development in Bonsall are in the works, I realized that we are, indeed,
approaching a crisis. There is little land left for development, and that will indeed create a crisis in housing availability.
So, lets all remain calm. Hate me if you want. I accept opinions, give me the same courtesy. Owning a home is still the American dream and, since 97.4 percent of homeowners pay their mortgages on time, the dream seems to be working out pretty well.
George Chamberlin is a regular contributor to the North County Times, and also is a TV and radio commentator. Contact him at [email protected].
