My rent’s not going up. I just signed a new year lease for the same as my last lease.

Hello 2019.

Okay, math time…

$1241 average rent with an 3.8% increase.

Median condo price in Central SD $419,000.

Condo Payment = $2512
Condo Property Tax = ~$400.
Condo Association = ~$200.
Total = $3112
less tax savings = ~$2000/mo

Ratio of after tax owning to rent $2000/1241 = 1.61

Years til parity 1.038^(years) = 1.61
yields 13 years.

So, if rents keep appreciating at the current rate, my rent will be on par with owning provided I don’t get an association increase or spend any money on maintenace in about the 2019.

Provided the condo glut doesn’t depress rents.

Woe is me.

Of course, maybe you prefer the Apartment Owners Association Poll claiming 5.8%, great parity is reached in 2014.

studenteconomist, I know something about the rental market since I’ve volunteered to find a nice place for my younger bro and his gf to live.

1) Whatever you do don’t get “desperate” and sign a lease because you just have live someplace. Try to find alternate arrangement of sign or month-to-month or 6 month lease.

2) graigslist is a great place to start. post a rent wanted ad and see if you get any responses. I recently posted on another thread about a good 1800sf house at Aviara for rent at $2100/mo.

3) word of mouth is the best way to find a rental. Having a good agent helps.

4) Don’t rent in rental only apartment complexes. Those are relatively crappy places to live. Look for condo/townhouse/sfr developments.

5) Look at the development/neighborhoods you like; review some for-sale listings and contact the listing agents. Tell them you don’t want to buy yet, but you’re looking for a rental in that area. They’ll be happy to help you, or refer you to someone who will can. Once the agents find out that you’re a newly minted “doctor” they’ll be all over you. They may pressure you to buy, but don’t insist that you want to rent.

6) Use your “doctor” status as a bargaining chip. Landland want good tenants and PhDs make better tenants than high-school graduates. Last week I was selling a bookself on craigslist and a woman left a message for me saying that she worked at Scripps and she wanted me to hold the shelves for her. I called her back and she works in the billing department. I sold the bookself to another person who came first with cash. Anyway, people play up their “status” all the time. You worked hard for your PhD so use it to get a good deal. One hundred dollars off the rent perhaps?

6) If a project is not completed yet, talk to the onsite sales agents and tell them that you’re wanting to rent. They might know an owner who wants to rent.

9) If you’re feeling ambitious. Write to the sellers directly and ask if they are willing to rent their homes.

9) Tell everyone even the grocery store clerk that you want to rent. Ask them to call you if they hear of something.

10) Consider sharing a home with a housemate. You could rent at 4-bedroom house for $3000 and your lifestyle would be much better than if you rented an apartment for $1500. I know it’s not easy to find a compatible housemate. But if you know someone, then all the better.

11) You’ll have to do some work. Take your time and something nice will come up. Then you can relax in your nice rental home and laugh of the recent buyers who are scrapping by to pay their outsize mortgages.

I had fun looking for a place for my bro. It’s better than going shopping. I just did it on my wireless laptop while watching TV after dinner.

I almost feel like I am piling on here…but for heavens sake…you don't even need an argument against this…just GOOGLE.  

I personally am not counting on a rent decrease, and I am also not claiming that we are certain to have a 50% nominal decline in housing prices.   But to say that rents never decline is the most easily refuted statement, it was almost not worth the effort.   

New York – 1993Apartment Rentals Tightening By NICK RAVO

Published: February 7, 1993

NYT

“Indeed, the market continues to be very soft, and rents last year dropped in many parts of the city, particularly in areas where gentrification never fully took hold and for such apartments as studios, small one-bedrooms, fourth-floor walk-ups and units in buildings without doormen.

But the rent declines were not, for the most part, as steep as they were in previous years. Overall, rents in New York have dropped about 15 percent since the real estate recession began in 1988, about half as much as the sale prices of co-ops and condominiums. …Rents, according to the National Cooperative Bank, showed the greatest decrease — 14.8 percent — in Lower Manhattan. On the Upper West Side the drop was 4.2 percent and on the Upper East Side, 2.7 percent.”

 San Francisco – 2003 

http://www.edab.org/newsletter/Quarterly/4thQuarter2003Files/RealEstate.html

“…rental rates for apartments have fallen by nearly 30% for most of the Bay Area. Here the East Bay has been hit as hard as its two neighbors, hardly a surprise given the commuting patterns of the region.”

 West Coast, Midwestern Cites – 2004 

FURTHER OCCUPANCY DECLINES SIGNAL CONTINUING SOFTNESS.   http://www.realfacts.com/news7.html

“Over the last four quarters the greatest year-over-year rent declines were in San Jose, 5.4%; Tulsa, 2.8%; Oakland, 2.4%; Austin 2.4%; Portland, 2.0%; and San Francisco, 1.6%. For both the quarter and year-over-year, three of five of the biggest rent declines were in northern California markets„San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco” April 23, 2004 

Boston, etc. – 2005“Rental markets have soured as well. Rents in most cities have been either flat or down in 2005. In Boston, a net loss of about 180,000 jobs in the past few years drove rents down about 10 percent in 2005, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Development (HUD).”http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/07/real_estate/buying_selling/small_landlord_guide/index.htm

Hey Powawayseller – can you post the link on that article…

My rent has gone up a total of 12% since 2000, which I have been very happy with. If rents flat-lined, I’d be pleased. A decrease would be heavenly.

SF was insane in 2000 – my friends at start-ups/consulting firms, etc. said it was like ghosttown for a while after the dot.com thing blew up. People doing graphic design, etc. for the web companies were literally moving back in with their parents. My friend was a month away from moving back in with his parents in Bufalo. Luckily, he picked up a free-lance gig and hung on. He negotiated lower rent and his landlord was delighted to comply!