I think the costco barometric economic indicator is a flawed system. I think I have shopped there regularly since 1985 when I knew of only one (Price club at the time) on Morena. I have never been able to guage economic activity by seeing people buy staples at a specific time at a specific location. Even during those 22 years I have had good and bad financial times and still managed enough money to buy toilet paper at costco. I think when I was at my poorest I may have shopped there even more, forgoing other luxuries yet maintaining food and toiletries as my little treat.

I think foreclosures are the best indicator, maybe luxury cars, boats and recreational vehicles will give you some insight but not things that people will always buy. I don’t think the majority of the people out there took their heloc to costco, they bought toy haulers, jet skis, implants, granite counters, etc. If you want the man/woman on the street info I would gladly hang out at the local plastic surgeon’s waiting room and strike up a conversation with the waiting patients but the office staff threatened to get a restraining order against me if I keep doing it.