Planning on buying in 6 months – Piggington's Econo-Almanac

This topic has 14 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by PerryChase.

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October 30, 2006 at 10:21 PM #7808

cristalight
Participant

My husband and I have no experience in buying a house, please help !!! I’ve been reading all the blogs and it seems the best thing to do is wait a little longer. Our lease expires August next year, so we were thinking to wait until then to buy. But in the mean time we’ve been doing a little research and checking out developments. We live in Mission Valley right now, and we were considering a place in Escala (3BR)… any thoughts? Also we checked out the houses in La Costa Greens, they were a little bit more expensive, but so much more space. But my husband communtes twice a week to Riverside, and it’s so complicated to get from La Costa Greens to the 15. So we are also considering Carmel Valley, close to SD and minutes away from the 15…. what do you guys think? we definitely want something new, 5 years old tops. We don’t have kids yet, but we will eventually.

October 30, 2006 at 10:34 PM #38816

CardiffBaseball
Participant

You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone around here that will recommend you buy right now. Some are saying prime buying opportunity will occur from 2009-2011. Escala is a neat community, but if you buy at the end of your lease, you might not be able to unload it once your family wants to move to a regular home.

If you continue doing your homework, you’ll avoid making a mistake and buying at the end of your lease.

October 31, 2006 at 1:32 PM #38850

kev374
Participant

I would strongly suggest patience in this market. A 1 year minimum wait regardless is prudent, at that time a reassesment will be necessary based on how much prices have come down. Remember between 1990 and 1995 my cousin’s apartment went down 36% in value, this time the situation is MUCH worse.

People will tell you that it is IMPOSSIBLE for that much decline but if a 200-300% price appreciation was possible a 50% decline is not only possible but LIKELY!

October 31, 2006 at 1:49 PM #38851

PerryChase
Participant

Here’s my response to another related recent thread:

http://www.piggington.com/ground_truth#comment-16995

I would much rather buy at Escala than up in La Costa. I like their 3-story detached houses. I just like the urban setting a lot more. Mission Valley is centrally located and is a better location for a young couple. If you buy small furniture, won’t feel that much space.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060924/news_1hs24smsofa.html

Don’t move to the boring suburbs until you need a “safe” environment for school age kids (at least 7 years away? ).

I expect to see bargains at Escala when ALL the development buyers are under-water. $350k for a detached house?

October 31, 2006 at 1:59 PM #38852

PerryChase
Participant

These are some other links to read to see the potential losses if you buy right now.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/

October 31, 2006 at 2:05 PM #38853

sdrealtor
Participant

“I would much rather buy at Escala than up in La Costa. I like their 3-story detached houses. I just like the urban setting a lot more. Mission Valley is centrally located and is a better location for a young couple. If you buy small furniture, won’t feel that much space.”

FYI, 3 story properties are among the most difficult to sell and most heavily discounted. I would never buy a 3 story property unless the 1st story allowed you to walk onto the sand of the beach. If you feel the urge buy yourself a Stairmaster and put it in your 1 or 2 story home.

October 31, 2006 at 2:52 PM #38855

SD Realtor
Participant

Hi Cristalight –

This is the other SD Realtor responding. I have sold a few listings in Escala and indeed it is a very nice place. I think that your choice should be dictated by what it most important to you. If commute is the biggest issue then I would move out further north/east. You mentioned Carmel Valley as a potential choice as well That may not be a bad idea as you can be in the 56 corridor and jet right up to I15. Also you will get more house for the money. I think Escala is great but I am not sold on raising my kids in a complex like that. Also the surrounding schools are not exceptional. Also if you want something in the newer category of housing stock be prepared to pay Mello Roos fees.

Now I would definitely agree with other comments to exercise patience. Like you I am also renting right now and while we REALLY want to buy a home, I think that waiting is the right thing to do and we could realize substantial savings. When your lease expires in August you should consider renewing it for at least 6 more months OR just let it convert to a month to month, (which is what happens if you do nothing)…

You may fall into a great situation where someone overextended themselves in a 2003-2005 purchase in a nice Carmel Valley home and they must short sell in 2008… I think there will be lots of those.

October 31, 2006 at 6:26 PM #38860

MH
Participant

I’d add a bit to the wait and see crowd – particularly if you don’t have kids yet and may still elect (need) to move somewhere else eventually.

None of us “know” where prices are headed and its not entirely impossible that we pessimists are overstating the case… maybe. But, its not like a few years ago when every month might have cost you 1% or more. Wait – if you miss the “bottom” its not like you’ll be completely out of the market. On the other hand, if you buy on the way down you’re largely screwed.

October 31, 2006 at 11:35 PM #38880

CardiffBaseball
Participant

I’d think Escala is suitable for people without kids, but not really a good place to raise kids. I fail to see how Escala is that great of a location. However having two kids in elementary, and one of them starting Jr. High next year, I decided against Escala for school district purposes. A young couple like Perry said has years before they have to worry about that stuff.

November 1, 2006 at 8:01 AM #38889

cristalight
Participant

Thank you guys !!!

This has been very helpful. We will definitely wait. In the mean time I will keep reading these blogs, they’re so interesting and as I said before very helpful.

Today we have an appointment to see MLS 066080821, just to check it out.

Thanks a lot again.

November 1, 2006 at 10:00 AM #38905

sdcellar
Participant

WOW! I’d say that thing is at least $100K overpriced and I’m not talking in a declining market–I mean in any market. $739K-$759K for a condo! I’d say $200K over if you factor in the current market. Maybe someone who knows Escala better than me can chime in. Perhaps I missing something major.

November 1, 2006 at 10:16 AM #38911

LookoutBelow
Participant

Hahahaaahaaaa ! Jump right In honey….the water is just fine !!

Hahahahaa……………

November 1, 2006 at 10:20 AM #38912

Mexico Resident
Participant

I follow Mission Valley condo real estate. I notice that there are a lot of Escala condos (maybe 10?) up for sale right now. The price range is $500k -$750k or so. The $500k price for 3 br/3 ba, isn’t this lower than a year ago? Anyone have data on this? Spectrum up in Kearny Mesa is also showing stress.

November 1, 2006 at 11:00 AM #38920

cristalight
Participant

Yes the prices in Escala are going down. The one we are checking later today is a 3Br 1700 sq ft detached, those were $779k last year. Now it’s $739k (motivated seller). We are SO waiting till late 2007 and see what happens.

November 1, 2006 at 9:38 PM #38984

PerryChase
Participant

In my view, $739k is not motivated enough. At 42 DOM, I’m willing to bet that it sits on the market — unless of course, you jump in and buy.

Don’t waste your time looking. The buying opportunity is not at least 2 years away.
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