I don’t think you can discount the effect another recession would have on any anticipated ‘normalizing’ market. There’s been about 12 recessions since the Great Depression–which itself was followed almost immediately by another recession–averaging a recession every 6 years. Since the Great Recession ended in 2009, we’re statistically 2 years from the next one, just in time for the effects of a rate rise to take hold. Since nobody seems sure what the effects of a prolonged period of very low rates will be, the future doesn’t hold much certainty. I sincerely hope there will be a shift away from real estate as an essential driver of a consumer driven economy. That has been the problem. Affordability issues are irrelevant in that context, and have only gained traction as a means of justifying over-inflated prices. If the economy gets a shot in the arm from a lift in real estate prices, you’ve still got to address the underlying problems.