There are two economic factors that will play into the real estate bottom:

1. In 2008 the leading edge of the 78 million baby boomers will be 62 yrs old and eligible for early Social Security benefits.

2. In 2010 the boomers will be 65 and eligible for full SS bennies. They will also be eligible for Medicare and the prescription drug benefit.

The Social Security ‘Trust Fund’ is empty. Mr Bush admitted that to us in a 2005 speech at the Univ of West Virginia where he said, “There is no trust fund – just IOUs.” (he was trying to sell us on the ‘privatize SS’ idea at the time)

The boomer retirement will have a huge financial impact on this country.

Remember that many boomers are counting on the equity in their homes to fund their retirement.

It is possible that another glut of houses could come on the market in 2008 / 2010 as the boomers try to retire. The boomers could be dumping houses for the whole decade.

All we can do is wait and see how everything shakes out.

I am telling my friends and family that 2009/2010 is the earliest that I will be buying anymore real estate.

Wall street is looking for a new supply of suckers (oops, I mean money) to replace the money that the boomers will be pulling out.

This, IMO, is the biggest push behind the ‘privatize social security’ idea.

If they can sell the American sheeple on this idea, some or all of the new money going into Social Security will go directly to Wall Street and equities.

Another way of replacing the money that boomers are going to pull out of the markets is by offering amnesty to the 30 million illegal (oops, I mean undocumented) aliens currently in this country.

The push towards amnesty is going on right now.

From what I have read, all of the legislation currently being planned to address the illegal immigration issue includes some form of amnesty for these criminals (that’s right, criminals!).

30 million new people who can be sucked into the social security game, coerced to pay income taxes, etc.

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What are we going to do with all of these 3500+ sqft houses?

Now that’s a good question.

Matt Simmons is predicting that the current production of 84 million barrels of oil per day will drop to 20 million by the year 2020.

How much will energy cost at that point?

How many Americans will be able to afford the heat and A/C for 3500 sqft of housing?

Maybe the tree-huggers will do us all a favor and start burning down any house over 2000 sqft.

Now that would be creative destruction!

Some of the 3500+ sqft houses will be ready for tear-down before they are 20 years old. Talk about low quality trash! And people are paying $800K to $2 mil for this stuff! It’s mind-boggling!!!

Unfortunately, anyone that becomes an American citizen is eligible for Social Security, Medicare, Aid for Dependent Children, food stamps, etc.

We also don’t let anyone die on the curbs in America so all of these people would have access to free healthcare by showing up in a hospital emergency room. (this may already be true – can illegals go to the emergency room? – how do they have their babies in our country?)

I don’t have a problem with hard working people coming to America LEGALLY and contributing to our society – but that is not what the current push for amnesty is about IMO.

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Yes on high density and mass transit.

I was in Vancouver recently. Lots of high-rise apartment and condo buildings and almost no freeways!

Here are some links inre defective new homes:

http://www.defectivehomes.info/

http://extra.orlandosentinel.com/buildingproblems/

http://www.houseorapt.com/tollbrotherstruth1.html

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/personal-finance/shoddy-home-construction-104/overview/index.htm

http://www.complaints.com/directory/2005/january/5/35.htm

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I don’t have personal experience with construction defect issues.

I do have lots of experience dealing with plumbers, handymen, painters, carpet installers, window installers, etc – all the services needed to keep rental property in tip-top shape.

I was continually frustrated and amazed at the low quality workmanship I got for my money. Even more amazing to me was that nobody cared whether I had one unit or twenty – I still got the same half-ass work.

I have to assume that the same thing occurs in new housing construction.

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One of my properties was near NTC / Liberty Station so I kept a close eye on the development there.

Navy records show 50-60 toxic hot spots on the property and there are questions about how well these sites were cleaned up.

The most telling point to me is that McMillan trucked in six feet of clean topsoil before building on the home sites. Wouldn’t want anyone to test the soil in their front yard now would we?

McMillan told the city that he needed the extra height so the sewage would drain which is interesting since none of the historic buildings are being raised but I assume they will have bathrooms in them???

Here’s a website that tracks ongoing issues at Liberty Station: http://www.ntcsd.org/ – spend some time at this site if you want to see how badly the city and McMillan are screwing the public on this deal.

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I think there is a bigger issue that ties into poor workmanship and low quality construction and that is that Americans have developed a sense of entitlement.

Many people seem to think that they are entitled to a middle-class (or better) lifestyle without working or certainly without working very hard.

I’m not sure how we address this issue. I think it will take another depression like the 1930’s to wake people up.

If I was in charge of this country I would institute a “No Work-y, No Eat-y” program. “You no work-y, you no eat-y.”

Perry – “There’s a federal law requiring treating all emergency room patients regardless of ability to pay. That’s only a one time treatment, there’s no follow-up to chronic diseases at the doctor’s office.”

What prevents the uninsured from coming back to the ER for treatment of the chronic disease?