Good points and I don’t disagree with you. At first I was incredulous reading the article but then remembered that what everyone says can’t happen is usually what does. Example: the current bond rally.

Will have to take your word for it that ‘required assumptions needed to predict that housing stocks will rise is that prices will rise’. The article only mentions housing starts possibly starting to rise.

Great observation about the consolidation (sideways movement) in starts since 2008 or so. I notice that in the chart that only occurs at the tops and not the bottom points. Could it be predicting another leg lower instead?

A 15% rise in anything from one year to the next is in most cases considered a lot.

I’m on the sidelines and so not in a hurry. I’m looking forward to see how it all plays out. Are we at the start of another 18 year cycle…