The biggest problem I have with the reported statistics is simply that the median is 99% of what is reported and I never really pay attention to the median anyway. I think sales volume is much more telling. Eventually medians will move down if volumes are consistently dropping. So my answer is that reported medians most likely will not reflect the impact. One thing that I believe has happened is that the volume drops from 2006 compared to 2005 were steeper then the volume drops of 2007 compared to 2006. This is more of a guess from memory but is most likely attributable to 2005 being the peak (in some areas).
So yes your conjecture is correct. I think that yes the real ugliness has yet to manifest itself. I don’t see a single wham month though. I just see continued sluggishness and in say 10 months or a year and we look back and go okay, it has really started crank down. Even the resets in October will not manifest themselves into trustee sales and REO for a spell. Remember, 3 months minimum until a NOD is even filed, then almost another 4 months to trustee sale, and as we have seen, REO properties are not being dumped onto the market all at once.
