Scarlett, my post was on topic and was not intended to “bait” anyone. If you know exactly what you want to buy and you know exactly where that inventory lies, then you have narrowed down your area. If you already make drive-thrus in areas at different times of day and evening, and stopped at the local parks, then you know who lives in that area (at least the ones using the facilities) and standing in front of their houses/garages. Saturday morning is a good time to drive thru because homeowners are washing vehicles and doing their chores. Go to the closest large neighborhood supermarket and see who is shopping there. I would also advise taking a longer lunch hour to drive thru and note how many unemployed adults are hanging out in the area (with or without strollers, lol) during the business day. There’s nothing wrong with being a stay-at-home parent, but if I was REALLY interested in purchasing on that tract and I saw some distress in those listings, there seemed to be a lot of unemployed adults around there during the day and the tract was less than about 20 years old, I would dig deeper with the plat-map study. On each parcel, I would determine the length of ownership thru tax records. I would start with sales occurring in the last ten years and study the terms of the encumbrances on each property (you may need to take 1-2 days off work for this). If the terms of the the the mortgages prevalent there are I/O, 30 due in 5/7, Option ARMS, have looming balloon payments, were higher than conforming upon origination, etc, I would think twice about investing there. If the bulk of the current mortgages on that tract were originated (whether purchase money or refi) in the last 7 years, I would look VERY CAREFULLY at the terms of the mortgages encumbering the tract. Your plat map study will help you as the months go by when you see some properties with NOD’s get NOS’s and get sold on the steps or their ownership reverts back to bene. After about 9 months of studying your plat(s) for a couple of hrs weekly, you will understand which properties are the premium lots and which properties are owned by owners with encumbrances which are soon to “blow up” on them. You will understand the degree of current distress in the area. This will help you make a decision on whether you want to actually invest there and if so, how much do you want to invest?
Nice cars in the driveway and lots of families with small children say NOTHING about neighborhood stability. Many owners may still be partially living off home equity that they removed in earlier years.
Just ask yourself how a typical 30-something stay-at-home parent will cope in this economy if the main breadwinner in his/her household becomes sick or loses their job.
Yeah, what I’m saying here will take some of the “glamour” and “serendipity” out of purchasing a principal residence for yourself. I’m suggesting these exercises to you because you seem worried here that you will purchase a property and its value will then plummet. My answer is to protect yourself as much as you can BEFORE making an offer. Do your thorough research on the tract(s) and be ready to act very quickly and decisively when you see a property you want.
Another, easier way to protect yourself is to work with a neighborhood buyer’s agent who has worked (and preferably resided) in your area of choice for a minimum of 25 years. Except the exact amount of encumbrances and their terms, this type of agent would know the answers to the rest of these questions cold (as well as answers to questions you may have about the area/tract that you haven’t asked yet, lol).
Waiting indefinitely for more “shadow inventory” to be released on the market is not going to help you. It is only going to trickle out little by little, anyway. Having full knowledge of the degree of shadow inventory that could possibly befall the tract in years hence is your power, IMHO. That’s the info you need to make a buying decision. All other considerations are secondary.
