I think that area will do very well over the next 20 years. Buinesses and jobs are moving in that direction so it’s in the path of progress which was not the case 10-15 years ago. I have a friend who owned a dump in Victorville fro his military days and it cash flowed, but it saw virtually no appreciation for 15 years. He sold in about 2000 for little more than he paid and since then the place has at least doubled (from about $75k to 150k+ – but it was a dump)
Think of it as Rancho Cucumonga 10 years ago. You can buy a new, 4,000 square foot home with quality construction on 1/2 acre in the 600’s so there is certainly an appeal there for those who are cost conscious, want a McMansion, and don’t mind an extra 45 minutes in the car.
With that said you need to understand that land values have gone down 20-30% in the last 18 months and you should intend on holding the land for another 5-10 years so you are selling as prices rise again. There’s also the question of the current zoning, what surrounds the land, are you going to entitle it during ownership, etc. I’d talk to land and commerical brokers in the area and get a feel for who the big players are (American Housing does a lot of residential out there) and follow their lead. No need to be a trendsetter. Sometimes it’s better to sit back and let others create the value (by spending their money on new roads, etc) and then capitalize on it. A great way to look for large swaths of land that will increase in value is to look at the California DOT website or the county website and find out where they are putting new exits on freeways and major thoroughfares. That’s where the new Targets and Wal Marts will be located
