I’ve found that it’s impossible to tell someone who either has made a big profit (on paper or otherwise), or who knows someone else whose made big profits that we’re not poised for another 10 years of increases. The smart money already knows that there are no short term increases in our immeditate future. The dumb money isn’t aware enough of exactly where they are to accurately gauge how little time they have left to get out in one piece.

If they ask my opinion I usually offer them the toned-down version that the market is already slowing up and in some areas declining a bit. There’s no upside in trying to foretell the depth of the decline, especially when there are so many variables in play. Unless I’m exactly right I’m an idiot, and there’s essentially no way to be exactly right.

An $800K house would cost $200K in Omaha. My parents house was featured in Architectural Digest back in the 1970s when it was built. They insist they cannot get a penny over $450K for it. You can get foreclosures in Omaha for under $100K. There are still cheap places to live. But lenderbubblecompany, why are you tired of waiting for prices to come down? It’s already happening. I’m also concerned that the lending bubble will cause home values to decline nationally. I don’t believe there is a risk-free real estate purchase anywhere in the US. By risk-free I mean safety of principal is guaranteed. Even a purchase in Omaha is too risky this year. After a year of foreclosures, what will the market be like? Of course you can find cheaper places to rent.

lendingbubbleco

I think you need to be more patient. San Diego has some of the best weather, schools and infrastructure in the country. Rents are very reasonable. If you can wait 18 months and have at least $40,000 in the bank, you should be able to pick up something in the future at the price you want. I figure that there should be 100,000 houses on the market by then. Right now, we have close to 20,000 and it should go parabolic in about 6 months.

As for SDrealtor, he has some good info–he’s in a combat area, his perspective gives you more of a feel to the real estate market. It gives you a fuller picture.

I try to watch the Carlsbad zips, and the 92078 San Marcos zip. My question is: How much (if at all) do you think home values have come down already, since this time last year? It seems like when I do searches on realtor.com or any of the other sites that pick up the mls listings I have been seeing many of the same houses coming up for months. (My wife:”Oh yeah, the one with the ugly kitchen wallpaper…it first appeared in November.”) I have read the comments about sellers being “sticky,” and I agree with that observation.

So, again, I guess my question is, how much will these homes on the market now listed at last spring/summer-type prices have to be lowered to actually sell? 5%, 10%, more? Seems like buyers in the $700k and up territory feel strength, and are going to drive some hard bargains.

Im using my friends house as a benchmark. So far he is down 3% off listing price ($15,000) from $515,000 to $499,999 and still no offers, 1 person walked through the home in 3 weeks. Inland Empire area.

I work with several individuals that live in the outlying areas of the county (Ramona) and the Temecula Valley. Prices have taken a real and tangible 15% decline in these locations in the 550,000. to 650,000. original price peak range from last year. This is on existing homes. And, even with the decline, there is currently almost no traffic or sales activity at the new price levels. This is identical to the process that began in 1991 in Southern California as far as first areas hit.