First off, I don’t know much about Santaluz other than driving by it on the way to soccer games, but there are some delusional sellers in there and many already in trouble. A quick search showed an active/pending ratio of 11 to 1 (76 actives) which is a huge discrepancy. 2 of the 7 pendings are bank owned. Only one pending sale is over $1,750,000 but about 30 active listings are over $1,750,000. I’m not sure how many homes are actually in the community, but if it’s less than 2,000 that’s a lot of homes for sale. Just about every listing is offering some incentive like paying Mello Roos and membership fees for 2 or 3 years. How about just dropping your price $100k or 200k? The one listing with a $10k Cartier shopping spree in Beverly Hills for the selling agent is very nice. I’m sure they’ll disclose that to the unsuspecting buyer if they ever find one.

It looks like there was a huge runup in 2003 and 2004 (like elsewhere), but some were just crazy. There was a small one story that was flipped for a $300k gain in about 6 months and the orignal purchase was in the 600’s.

I expect a lot more inventory in the Fall and Spring ’08 when the next tax bills come. Again, I don’t know anything about this community, but it seems due for a big hit. Supply and demand.