Regarding the stable gov’t job -my husband’s company does a lot of gov’t work, and through the years, we’ve learned that good times for companies doing gov’t work (as well as gov’t employees)depend on tax revenue and gov’t regulations. In a recession, not even teachers are safe. So we all need to be careful in assuming our jobs are stable. Even if the job is stable, the actual person doing it can be voted out of his position. However, if you are really safe, then you can plan better for your future.

Someone posted a question on the forum recently: is it better to buy high at low interest rates, or wait for lower prices even though interest rates may be higher. You can scroll back through the forum to see the answers.

I saw an article in the U-T about Lennar. They posted a profit and had an increase in orders, although their orders were down 10% on the West coast. They sold some land, and made double their expected profit on the land sales. I wonder if they had to sell that land to show a profit. I picture increasing sales, each at a loss. Thus, the land had to be sold to show a profit.

Hi, Rich,

I am a secret admirer of your writings, through your articles I have learned quite a lot about the true downtown 92101 condo market.

Do you have an eductaed guess or prediction about a good period to buy in 92101? What is your guts feeling? Should I buy in 2007 or 2008? or later? I plan to retire there.

Thanks a million!

I would add to watch these leading indicators: days on market, inventory, HAI (housing affordability index), mortgage applications. You’ll need to work with a realtor to get the first two metrics.

As sdrealtor said, the media is great at telling you what happened 6 months ago in the market. When I listed my house in 10/05, only this site and a few bloggers informed of the bubble. Now, it’s in every media outlet. Even I missed the top by a few months. I took a 5% haircut on my offer.

Only in the rear view mirror will you be able to figure out rock bottom. As far as this area goes, this is my second time through the cycle here and my 16th year in town. In 1992 it was a different town, now Temecula has over 500 jobs per 1000 residents (murrieta still is in the mid 200’s) but the two towns can be almost considered the same market. In 1992 and 1998 (my last two purchases) almost everyone worked elsewhere, now it is more autonomous and a recent nctimes article predicted commuters will be commuting to Temecula in the near future. In 1998 on my street of sixteen houses almost everyone commuted, now there are only two of us who drive more than 20 minutes. I was wrong in 1992 and right in 1998. I am looking to purchase again and think this fall will be a good time. I am not looking to hit the absolute bottom, just close, and when things are affordable for me then my guess is that they will be affordable for others. 300k for a 2000 sq. would be ideal (another 50-60k to go), my fingers are crossed. 300k would mean a loan of 200k on a 100k salary so i won’t be stretched at all and I will stay for years, if that house falls to 200k later i still won’t lose my house, that for me is when it is time to buy.

As you get into Murietta you lose marketability to the San Diego commuter (but you might gain it to the o.c.). My last purchase in Redhawk was particularly good because residents there can exit the freeway in SD county at Rainbow canyon, thus avoiding the border patrol checkpoint and the traffic. There is no more land south of Redhawk as it becomes National forrest and indian reservation land for twenty miles so there will only be limited new homes, all of the development and traffic is to the north. Currently I can get to Esco/Vista/San marcos in under 30 minutes during rush hour and that is why many of the S.D. commuters buy their second Temecula home in the South. My old house on the Temecula/Murrieta border off Winchester is almost twice the commute time during rush hour.

With all that said, we fall and rise with S.D., when prices decline there people don’t flee to Temecula and when prices rise there, they start coming back and drive up the price. Rents on the other hand seem to stay low here, few people move here unless they are families that purchase. Lake Elsinore, Perris, Corona and Menifee are suburbs of Riverside but Temecula is a suburb of San Diego despite what the map says.