There is an 18 year cycle in RE, and that is what my first possible low in 2008 comes from. Unlike many here, I am not so arrogantly sure that anything I predict or do is deadly accurate. I am a professional trader, so I need to be flexible. I made 59% in my accounts last year as proven in the trading contest I entered, and that was 100% in the US Markets. If I recall correctly, not many people in here were in agreement with me early last year when I was talking about a big stock market rally. I got pummelled when I suggested it by Poway and Co.
I did say possible low, and late 08 would be about 4 years from the top, so that is in that range you mentioned. Also, going against the mainstream media has made me some substantial money in my life, so I will always want to continue to do that. I doubt there is one person in the mainstream media who could come anywhere near my returns, if they could they would be trading and not writing about how others should do what they cannot themselves.
I have no idea if this or any other theory I have is correct, but I do put money behind my words each day. Further, I have repeatedly urged people not to get so tied up in all these negative things. The US economy will be just fine, and although far from perfect,is in many ways in better shape than it has been in the past. There are always risks Matt, some of my investments do not work out exactly as I plan, but I adapt and take another swing when they don’t. I think many in here need to be a bit more flexible in their views than they are. The asset swing between these two things seems to take place over about a years period, so that could buy an additional year taking us to that 5 year time frame. I do not know if RE will bottom then, or even begin to go up, but it is an upwardly biased asset class, so the surprises will be on the upside not the downside in my opinion. We have certainly seen that in recent years.
I just put about 200k into Caterpillar stock a month ago, how many of the mainstream media would have supported that move, and it is up 13% from my entry point as of today. If we get into a inflationary cycle, there are still plenty of opportunities to make money, and I am hopeful that I will be able to indentify them as I have in the past.
I could be wrong, I very rarely see anyone in here state that. I appreciate the way you disagreed with me instead of attacking, we need more of that in here.
