The sell May and go Away goes against the seasonal tendency for a rally at that time of the year. It does not always happen, but on average it does. That is not part of my trading, so it is not a consideration one way or the other. I am not sure where that came from, but probably from someone who never made any money trading. I cannot afford to get caught up in cute little phrases like that with no basis in fact. I trade for a living, so I need to make money, not write about what others should do. I do advise others, but I only make money when they do, so I need to be pretty accurate. Last year we had a big decline in May which I called one day in advance in my blog. You can go to it and see the May 10th post. That was clearly telegraphed by a bond market decline, which we do not have right now.
When the commercials are as heavily long as they are now, it is not likely that a large decline will occur. If they head to the sidelines, I will go with them. Until that time I will stay heavily long as I have been for about a month now. Fighting a trend like this is a good way to part with ones money IMO, and I have learned that lesson the hard way over the years.
This does appear to be a blow off top, but how far it goes is anyone’s guess, and I want to ride it as long as possible.
