[quote=Rich Toscano]davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.
To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.
rich[/quote]
There are very few people with any credibility in economic forecasting. Therefore, the best person to ask about peak oil, etc is the experienced CEO, and there is no one with more experience than Lee Raymond. Humanitarian of the year he may not be, but you can’t deny his excellent management skills.
XOM can afford to buy all the top scientists and economists in the world and therefore it is instructive to watch what their investments. (Talk is cheap, CERA)
“These resources are attractively positioned to increase natural gas production and to meet the growing demand for natural gas, which is expected to be the single biggest contributor to the U.S. and global energy mix over the coming decades,” Vice president of investor relations at Exxon Mobil, commenting on Dec 2009 $41 Billion bid for XTO Energy. http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/12/15/15greenwire-exxons-bid-spotlights-bright-future-for-natura-56404.html
Check out Raymomd’s Charlie Rose interview from 2005. If this interview went on for 8 hours, listeners would know more about industry than most economists.
Exxon didn’t invest in new refineries
Great quote:”I don’t want Govt to help us when we are in trouble, that is on us, than is for us to manage risk level”
“No credible alternative fuel source was found after massive studies by Exxon in the 70’s. Since then, real price of oil has gone down and the alternatives are still not feasible…Charlie – What about BP and RD Shell and their alternate
…basic laws of thermodynamics haven’t changed since 1980 …
New refineries are not feasible (although expansion of current plants has been done)..Nuclear energy is profitable…”
From his 2007 interview, Lee talks about conservation, “Therefore, we have to become more efficient in how we use energy. Secondly, on the supply side, we have to try and have access to all available supplies. By that I mean conventional oil and gas, unconventional oil and gas, coal, nuclear, biofuels. Any energy supply source that can be economically competitive is something that we should try and develop and bring into the energy mix.”
