A few more than 8. According to the CDC, more than 11,000 have died in the US, with as many as 55 million contracting the virus.
The 11,000 (11,160) is actually an estimate of the number (see heading; reports and extrapolations). http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/results_2009_h1n1.htm
I don’t know if the extrapolation on number of cases based upon previous cases seen at hospitals is a good methodology (ratio based on proportion of people with influenza that seek medical care). This ‘pandemic’ causes more people to visit the hospital for symptoms than would normally visit. Using previous ‘factors’ for percentage visiting hospital could cause the extrapolation to be invalid.
Using San Diego county counted numbers; 55 deaths attributed to H1N1, 829 hospitalizations, total population 3,001,072.
(link1, link2)
Taking these numbers and the ‘estimated’ 11,157 deaths, and fact-checking by using them to estimate total population (assumes similar infection/death rates in the rest of the population)
(11,157)/(55) * 3,001,072 = 608,781,096 which is about 2x the population of the United States. http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
I would have expected a ‘slight’ variance, not 2x.
Using population of California as a whole gives;
318 deaths, 6000+ hospitalized. Total population of California is 36,756,666.
(11,157)/(318) * 36,756,666 = 1,289,604,159 or 4x the population of the United States. Why is the difference between just San Diego and all of California important? The California sample includes San Diego and as you increase a statistical sample size, the result should close on the real number (reduction in variance with increased sample size). The increased sample size is actually moving away from the CDC numbers, not towards as would be expected.
Interesting notes:
Between 1999 and 2001, there was positive confirmation of influenza virus for fewer than 10% of deaths recorded as caused by influenza.
Official annual respiratory viral surveillance data for the seasons 1976–1977 through 1998–1999 have shown that a mean of only 12% of “influenza specimens” actually tested positive for influenza virus.
Looks like laboratory confirmed numbers is 1,857 for the period 8/30/2009 to 1/23/2010 (lower 2/3s of the page), and this is all influenza deaths, including H1N1 over the period.
