Wow, that article had a ton of interesting information, with consideration given to how much of it you choose to believe. For example:
San Diego County placed 17th among the state’s 58 counties, with a default rate of 3.3 per 1,000 homes, compared with 6.9 in top-ranked San Joaquin County.
The problem is nowhere near the crisis levels seen elsewhere in the nation, analysts said.
Nationally, the county’s default rate placed 203rd out of 332 markets surveyed, according to mortgage tracking company LoanPerformance. By comparison, Cleveland was reported to have a default rate of 24.9 with Detroit, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta and Denver not far behind.
So San Diego is hurting, but no where near like other CA counties, and no where as bad as other parts of the US. If we were so bubbleicious before, why are we holding up better than many other non extreme bubble areas?
Also this:
The DataQuick figures, assembled by ZIP code, show high concentrations of distressed properties in newly built South County communities such as Otay Ranch and among condo conversion complexes countywide. In both cases, buyers stretched their finances to purchase a home and then saw values fall, making it impossible for them refinance into more affordable loans.
The area with the highest local default rate this year was San Ysidro ZIP code 92173, with a rate of 10.79 per 1,000 homes. Default activity for January and February ranked San Ysidro 15th among 1,100 ZIP codes statewide having 1,000 or more homes.
From there, the local ZIP codes with the most default notices dropped to 49th and lower in the statewide survey.
Also in South County, three Chula Vista ZIP codes were among the 10 worst-performing San Diego-area communities. Rancho San Diego was the 10th-worst performer, ranking 168th statewide.
Taken as a whole, it appears South County (Upper Mexico) is dragging the whole county down, as far as NODs and foreclosures go. Remove those badly hit areas, and I wonder what the overall strength of SD county is?
Finally this: Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, agreed, saying the California housing market is likely to resemble an “L,” as prices and sales drop and then remain low for the foreseeable future.
But in his update on the state’s economy due Monday, Leamer said he will predict a relatively stable economy without the job losses and other reverses that devastated California 15 years ago and triggered the last real estate downturn.
“We think the problems in real estate will stay in real estate and not affect the rest of the economy,” he said. The Forecast’s accuracy in predicting the path of real estate suffered a blow in 2005 when some of its economists warned of an impending correction in the housing market and a possible recession that never materialized.
Well, that correction HAS started happening, just not exactly in 2005, but it is here now. Still, a prediction that the problems tied to a real estate related economy pullback will be isolated to the real estate economy, are scary if you believe them.
A good read, but if you buy the entire premise there, it sounds like a splash of cold water on the face of some expectations. We’ll just have to see.
