CT, I can see your point but I think there are too many other factors in play. Many people have bought 2nd and 3rd homes and intended to flip them or rent them out but the market changed and now many of these people will lose these homes do to mortgages resetting, rent wont cover the costs of owning these homes and they will end up back on the market as a repo.
Also, rents and home prices are already sky high at a time when average families are struggling just to put gas in their cars so I don’t see how rents and home prices can go up any more than they are now any time soon.
Most of the excess we see is from all the easy equity pulled out of real estate. Most people in SD don’t make the kind of money that could sustain these lifestyles and home prices.
Most people I talk to don’t even seem concerned about how they will pay all that money they borrowed back. Its just not real to them… yet.